Ukraine.

[TsarSamuil]

Amid tensions, Ukraine braces for Sunday's presidential poll.

Published 15 January, 2010, 13:31

The leading candidates in Ukraine's presidential election are making the most of their last opportunities to campaign before polls open on January 17.

Political life in the country has been turbulent over the last five years, and this ballot seems set to be no exception.

The Ukraine presidential election is a two-step process – candidates need 50% plus one of the vote in order to gain the nomination for president. That is unlikely to happen considering there are 18 candidates on the field, including one that has changed his name to the Ukrainian equivalent of “None of the Above.”

Of the eighteen candidates, three are major players – the incumbent president Viktor Yushchenko, his former rival Viktor Yanukovich and the current prime minister Yulia Timoshenko.

Yushchenko, the country’s incumbent leader, is slipping in the polls while Yanukovich is starting to pull ahead, with actual leader Timoshenko in second place.

This is the first presidential election since the “Orange Revolution” of 2004 when the nation was divided between supporters of Yushchenko and Yanukovich. Eventually the former was swept into power on a wave of street protests.

This year’s campaign has seen its share of agitation. In October 2009 a member of Yulia Timoshenko’s block was accused of being a pedophile, however, the allegations never made it to court.

A recently scandal involved Ukraine voters going to a web site to say that they don’t care who the president is, they just want to sell their vote.

Last Thursday the Ukrainian security service announced that an undisclosed bank had given millions in cash to one of the contenders in the race. The agency reminded banks that this kind of activity is illegal, especially so close to the campaign.

Ukrainian Orange Revolution: vicious cycle.

The front man of one of Ukraine’s top rock bands, Mad Heads XL that performed to a crowd on Independence Square in Kiev during what was later dubbed the Orange Revolution, describes the experience as unforgettable.

“It was one of the most memorable concerts for me because of the crowd,” says Vadim Krasnookiy, lead singer of Mad Heads XL. “The crowd was very inspired, everyone believed in the possibility of positive changes. I felt a very special energy from the audience.”

Swept up in the fever of mass protest, tens of thousands of Ukrainians braved sub-zero temperatures to rally on the square in December 2004, angered by a flawed election won by Viktor Yanukovych. The public voice craved radical change, and when the pro-Western Viktor Yushchenko won an election re-run, everyone thought that this was just what the country needed.

But five years on, many Ukrainians feel let down by a leadership that has failed to deliver on its bold promises – even those who stood in the orange camp during the bloodless revolution.

World heavyweight boxing champion Vitaliy Klitchko supported Viktor Yushenko back in 2004.

But Klitchko, now a politician in Kiev’s administration, is far from happy at what he sees in today’s Ukraine.

“There's great disappointment because unfortunately most of the promises made in 2004 have not been kept,” says the former WBC World Boxing Champion. “And the majority of people feel cheated. Corruption, for example, has become even more widespread. There are some positive changes like freedom of speech or eased visa regulations with many European countries but overall nothing has changed in Ukraine.”

But at first, it did seem like the beginning of a better life. During the first few years, the country saw steady double-digit economic growth, it was finally admitted to the World Trade Organization and at one point it even seemed that EU membership – something almost two-thirds of the population wanted – was only months away.

But then things took a turn for the worse. Disputes between the two heroes of the orange revolution – Viktor Yushenko and Yulia Tymoshenko – led to repeated political upheavals and dissolutions of parliament. Street protests became a matter of routine.

The country’s former president Leonid Kuchma says it is a sad sight. “These have been years of missed chances. Instead of working together, the President and the Prime Minister have been using their power to grab as many assets as they could. Can anything good happen in such a situation?” asks Kuchma, who led the country from 1994-2005. “And when other countries see that Ukraine is so unstable of course they do not invest anything.”

As the country prepares for Sunday’s presidential vote, many say they don’t trust their politicians and will probably stay at home on Election Day. But despite the general frustration over the orange era, some are unwilling to abandon their ideals.

“We do not believe in one good politician or president that can change the country for us. We realize that we can only do it all together,” says Vadim Krasnookiy.

As the closely fought campaign comes to an end, with Tymoshenko and Yanukovych leading the polls, one feeling prevails in Ukraine, that in a certain sense, history may be caught in a vicious cycle.

Five years ago, it was the people’s desire to change things that inspired the Orange Revolution. This time around, despite much weaker faith in their politicians, Ukrainians are again hungry for something new. The big questions now are whether any of the candidates can deliver the goods, and whether Independence Square in Kiev will again witness the passions of Ukrainian politics.

[TsarSamuil]

Tymoshenko has better chance of becoming president than Yanukovych.

Today at 12:30 | Interfax-Ukraine

Moscow, January 15 (Interfax) - A recent opinion poll suggests that Russians think Ukraine's Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko has a better chance of becoming president than Party of Regions leader Victor Yanukovych, with most seeing his victory in the election this Sunday as the one that would suit Russia's interests best.

Generally, Russian interest in this year's Ukrainian presidential election remains roughly the same level as it was five years ago, with only 35% of those polled saying they care. 62% said they did not care, the Yuri Levada Analytical Centre found.

In all, 1,600 respondents were questioned across 46 Russian regions.

Twenty-six percent of those polled said Yanukovych's victory would suit Russia best, 15% said Yulia Tymoshenko is the better choice for Russia and 10% said both were equally as good.

At the same time, 26% of respondents said Russia should not expect any benefits from Yanukovych or Tymoshenko's victory.

The same poll in November 2009 found that thirty-four percent of respondents thought Tymoshenko was likely to win the election followed by Yanukovych in second with 24%.

Tymoshenko and Yanukovych are the frontrunners in Ukraine's presidential election in which 18 candidates are running.

[TsarSamuil]

Ukraine candidates relying on U.S. advisers.

Today at 12:42 | Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) — Ahead of a presidential election that could tilt Ukraine's orientation away from the West, leading candidates of all stripes have been seeking help from expensive U.S. based political operatives.

Candidates have hired campaign consultants, lobbyists and public relations firms with deep ties in Washington. With an interest to securing vital connections, the most prominent candidates have sought firms with ties to recent U.S. presidential candidates, including U.S. President Barack Obama, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, both Democrats, and Republican Sen. John McCain.

While some of the U.S. contracts are aimed at importing political expertise into a country with relatively little experience with campaigning in a democracy, the candidates also seem to want to show off their Washington connections to their constituents.

"Ukrainian politicians think it is crucial to cultivate an audience in Washington both for domestic political legitimacy and to facilitate their agenda," said Samuel Charap, an analyst on the region at the Center for American Progress in Washington.

Also, regardless of who wins, the new government will want to maintain smooth relations with the United States, which has played a major role in helping Ukraine secure loans during the economic crisis.

Ukraine's current leaders were swept to power on the back of peaceful street protests in 2004 that came to be known as the Orange Revolution. The pro-Western movement was hailed in the United States and Europe as a victory for democracy and a blow to Russia's lingering grip over politics in the former Soviet Union.

Five years on, however, the movement's leaders have failed to deliver on promises of sweeping democratic reform, and the politician shouted down by the Orange Revolution, pro-Russian candidate Viktor Yanukovych, is far ahead in the polls leading up to Sunday's vote.

Yanukovych, whose Kremlin-backed election victory in 2004 was overturned by the Ukranian Supreme Court amid the street protests and allegations of fraud, has employed Paul Manafort, a Washington political strategist, who helped McCain's 2008 presidential campaign and whose partner Rick Davis was McCain's campaign manager.

After Moscow's open support for his presidential bid in 2004, Yanukovych has faced accusations of being a Kremlin loyalist, a reputation he has sought to shake during this campaign by appearing to warm to the West.

Former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State David Kramer, now an analyst on the region at the German Marshall Fund, says that Yanukovych may seek to reach out to the Obama administration should he win.

"He is going to try to show that he is not such a bad guy, that he is misunderstood and that Washington can work with him," Kramer said.

Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, who is considered Yanukovych's chief rival for the presidency and is more Westward leaning, has relied on media consulting firm AKPD, which was founded by Obama's now chief-of-staff David Axelrod. Axelrod no longer works for the firm.

Current President Viktor Yushchenko, whose popularity has plummeted since he led the 2004 Orange Revolution, has been getting polling and advice from Clinton's campaign strategist Mark Penn, as well as the Kiev office of the PBN, a Washington-based consulting company.

Through PBN, Yuschenko has been distributing frequent English language releases on the race and his candidacy to U.S. journalists. Kramer said that effort may be about burnishing his reputation for the history books.

"He doesn't have much of a chance," Kramer said. "The explanation might be legacy."

Another leading candidate, who appears to be gaining momentum, Sergei Tigipko, a former economy minister turned to British firm Bell Potinger to help raise his profile with a trip to Washington last year.

The size of most of the U.S. contracts are hard to estimate, because the consultants have not registered under U.S. lobbying laws. None of the firms would comment on their work, but their employment is widely known in Washington and Kiev.

For the same reason, it also is hard to determine the range of services offered by the firms. Some of their connections with prominent U.S. politicians suggest that Ukrainian candidates also are looking to demonstrate their access in Washington.

[TsarSamuil]

Viktor Yanukovych poised to take Ukraine presidency.

Polls show comfortable lead over rival Yulia Tymoshenko for man who fraudulently fixed 2004 election.

Luke Harding in Kiev
guardian.co.uk, Friday 15 January 2010 14.21 GMT


Supporters of Viktor Yanukovych hold his portrait during an election rally in Kiev. Photograph: Viktor Drachev/AFP/Getty Images

Viktor Yanukovych, the man who fraudulently fixed Ukraine's 2004 election, unwittingly setting off the Orange Revolution, was today on course for a spectacular comeback, with opinion polls suggesting he is poised to become Ukraine's next president.

Before the first round of Ukraine's presidential election on Sunday, polls show Yanukovych enjoys a comfortable 14-point lead over his nearest rival, Yulia Tymoshenko, Ukraine's populist prime minister. The two are the likely winners in this weekend's 18-candidate race and will face each other in a second run-off vote on 7 February.

Ukraine's incumbent Orange president, Viktor Yushchenko, has no chance of re-election. Polls give him less than 4% of the vote. Such is his loathing for Tymoshenko, his former ally, Yushchenko is now semi-openly campaigning for Yanukovych, whom he defeated in 2004, and whose supporters tried to poison him.

The pro-democracy sentiments that prompted thousands to protest against the authorities and build a flimsy tent city in Kiev's central Maidan have long given way to something else – anger, frustration and widespread disillusionment with Ukraine's quarrelsome and self-serving political elite.

Yesterday, there were few signs left of the Orange Revolution. Only a handful of elderly volunteers could be seen handing out election leaflets on Kiev's icy Independence Square. The main attraction was a bunch of cold-looking Father Christmases shivering under a tree, promoting a new chocolate bar.

Some have interpreted this weekend's poll as a decisive tilt by Ukraine towards Russia. Both Yanukovych and Tymoshenko have pledged to reset relations with Russia, reversing the pro-western Yushchenko's hostile Moscow policies. At the same time, however, both are broadly committed to Ukraine's integration with Europe, especially in economic matters, and to what has been dubbed multi-vector politics.

For its part, the Kremlin has not endorsed any candidate, a stark contrast with 2004, when it openly backed Yanukovych and bankrolled his campaign. Analysts say Russia's main priority is to get rid of Yushchenko. In addition, Russia has laid down demands for whoever wins. Top of the agenda is the renewal of the lease for Russia's Crimea-based Black Sea fleet, which runs out in 2017.

A Yanukovych victory would mean an extraordinary reversal of the dramatic events of 2004, which saw the supreme court overturn Yanukovych's fraudulent victory in the second round of the presidential election and order another vote, which Yushchenko comfortably won.

It would also be an important psychological triumph for Yanukovych, who grew up in a poor working-class family in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region. As a young man he served two prison sentences for robbery and stealing women's hats – a record that has, paradoxically, only increased his standing among some Russian-speaking voters.

Critics point out that Yanukovych is a ponderously gaffe-prone speaker. Others compare his colourful biography with that of former US president George W Bush, arguing that both made mistakes in their youths but have since embarked on a redemptive journey. Yesterday, several voters on the streets of Kiev dismissed him as tupoi – a Russian word for stupid or obtuse.

However, others suggest Yanukovych would be a less autocratic and more consensual leader than Tymoshenko, whose authoritarian instincts have spooked many educated voters. Meanwhile, European diplomats appear reconciled to a Yanukovych victory, arguing that the key issue is not which candidate wins, but that the election is fair in a region not known for its democracy.

"After three free and fair elections in five years, Ukraine is the most democratic country in the former Soviet Union, excluding the three Baltic nations," Leigh Turner, the UK's ambassador in Ukraine, writes on Guardian.co.uk. He adds: "If Ukraine can make a success of democracy and media multipolarity that will show the rest of the region that there's a democratic alternative to authoritarianism and one-party rule."

According to Andrew Wilson, of the European Council on Foreign Relations, Yushchenko has only himself to blame for the failure of the Orange Revolution. His mistakes include failing to reach out to the Russian-speaking parts of the country, allowing the oligarchs to establish a cartel in parliament and constantly sniping at his prime ministers.

"The one good thing about the coming election is that Yushchenko seems to be on his way out. The five-year psychodrama of 'Viktor versus Yulia' is hopefully at an end. It would be deeply depressing if conflict is so embedded in the system that the duel between Yushchenko and Tymoshenko is simply replaced by one between Tymoshenko and Yanukovych," Wilson noted.

Yanukovych – the most likely winner – was no longer the "existential threat to democracy" he was back in 2004, when a secret Yanukovych team, hidden in a nearby cinema, hacked into Ukraine's central election commission computer, Wilson added. "The Orange leaders were poor on delivery. If democracy can tame and reshape a bad guy like Yanukovych it shows it works," he suggested.

Tymoshenko's strong campaigning skills are likely to see a bounce in her vote between the first and second rounds. She may also win support from Sergey Tigipko, the third-placed candidate, who is enjoying a late surge among voters fed up with the two leading contenders.

According to a poll by Ukraine's Democratic Initiatives Foundation, however, Tymoshenko faces an uphill struggle to win. It has Yanukovych on 33.6% and Tymoshenko on 19.2%, with Tigipko – a former chairman of Ukraine's National Bank – on 9.23 and Yushenko on 3.7.

In the event of defeat, Tymoshenko is almost certain to contest the results in court. She will inevitably accuse Yanukovych of fraud. It remains to be seen whether Yanukovych will be able to face down Tymoshenko's threats and win the prize that last time remained tantalisingly out of his grasp.

The election is taking place against the backdrop of a severe economic crisis in Ukraine. The country's economy contracted by 15% last year, with the government narrowly avoiding default. "Only Yanukovych can rescue us from the economic crisis," Yelena Petrovna said yesterday, handing out leaflets for Yanukovych and his Party of the Regions.

[TsarSamuil]

Tymoshenko fights to end.

Kyivpost.com
Today at 00:43 | James Marson

Sure, she’s tough, but can she win this time around?

Yulia Tymoshenko
Age: 49
Hometown: Dnipropetrovsk
Education: Dnipropetrovsk State University (1984)
Career: Energy trader, politician
Political posts: Deputy prime minister (2000-01), Fatherland (Batkivshchyna) Party leader, prime minister (2005-06, 2007-present)
Campaign slogan: “Ukraine will win!”
Family status: Married, one child
Famous quote: “Who told you people don’t want dictatorship?”


LUHANSK, Ukraine – She has been the “gas princess” and the “Orange princess,” but can Yulia Tymoshenko become Ukraine’s next president?

Trailing Party of Regions leader Victor Yanukovych in pre-election polls by 10 or more percentage points, Tymoshenko has been using every weapon she can think of to close the considerable gap. She promises a bright (and European) future for Ukraine. She blames her opponents for the country’s economic and political crises. She lavishly spreads government (and non-government) resources.

Her aggressive campaign style was on display in mid-December when the Kyiv Post followed Tymoshenko on the campaign trail to Luhansk Oblast in eastern Ukraine, where she met with miners, handed out keys to apartments and appeared at an Ani Lorak concert.

The cornerstone of Tymoshenko’s campaign has been her carefully formed image as a fighter for the Ukrainian people against corrupt and criminal interests represented by her opponents, Yanukovych and President Victor Yushchenko.

In a speech to miners in Luhansk, she blasted top politicians, their oligarch backers and corrupt state officials for exacerbating the economic crisis by transferring misappropriated funds to offshore accounts.

Tymoshenko has a history of conflicts with big business.

Herself a key player in the murky Russia-Ukraine gas trade in the 1990s, she clashed with gas trade moguls while working as deputy prime minister for energy from 1999 to 2001. In February 2001, she was arrested on charges of gas smuggling, tax fraud and forgery of documents, in what she claims was a move to stop her from rooting out corruption.

After becoming prime minister in 2005 in the wake of the Orange Revolution, she threatened to renationalize privatized companies. In January 2009, Tymoshenko moved to cut out gas-trade intermediary RosUkrEnergo, widely seen as a part of a corrupt scheme, from the Russia-Ukraine trade. And she didn’t stop talking about it throughout the year. This, she says, is evidence of her commitment to clean up Ukrainian business.

She told assembled coal miners that Yanukovych and his “criminal backers” should not be allowed back into power, as they would “again try to gain control over state resources.”

Critics say that her portrayal of herself as whiter than white, in contrast to “dirty” opponents, is disingenuous, given Tymoshenko’s past as a key player in the murky gas trade in the 1990s and connections with ex-Prime Minister Pavlo Lazarenko, her patron who was convicted in the United States in 2006 on money-laundering charges. “Where does the prime minister get the millions of hryvnias for her [campaign] advertisements, a person without a flat, a piece of land or a car? A tramp!” said Yushchenko in November, referring to her declaration of assets in the election campaign. She also has her own links with big business – in her entourage in Luhansk were multi-millionaire supporters Kostyantyn Zhevago and Serhiy Taruta.

Tymoshenko’s calls for strict control and a strong leader, alongside her aggressive rhetoric, have led to concerns that she will take an authoritarian grip on the country if elected. But activists say they are ready to oppose any such moves.

“It can’t happen as people in civil society are prepared for this,” said Dmytro Potekhin, a political analyst and civil society activist.

A number of observers have likened her approach to the Bolshevik method of identifying “enemies of the people” responsible for the country’s problems. Her billboard campaign has sought to identify her with Ukraine by declaring: “She is working. She is Ukraine.” By implication, other candidates are working against her and the nation.

“She always finds someone else to blame,” Potekhin said.

Nowhere is this more evident than the economy. Despite being in charge of the Ukrainian economy as it nosedived in the fall of 2008, she has put the blame on other politicians for obstructing her work and colluding with big business to enrich themselves.

Some give her credit for shepherding the economy through a desperate year. But others point to the cost – the government has taken on more than $11 billion in debts to the International Monetary Fund, the last gas payment to Russia was made from central bank reserves, taxes have been demanded in advance and companies are waiting for huge unpaid value-added tax refunds.

During the trip to Luhansk, she predicted economic recovery – if only she would be elected president. She fixed March as the date of the end of the crisis and also forecast that the hryvnia will claw its way back to six to the dollar, much stronger than the current eight. This is the same woman, however, who denied the country was heading for economic crisis only days before it hit in 2008.

Experts also note that she has presented no concrete economic program to back up her promises.

“The question is whether she can take unpopular decisions,” said Yevhen Bystrytskiy, executive director of the International Renaissance Foundation.

Tymoshenko refutes accusations that she is a populist, which is almost a dirty word in Ukrainian politics. Her premiership has included policies that returned hundreds of millions of dollars to bank depositors whose money disappeared when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991.

In recent months, Tymoshenko has tried to bury the populist label by accusing her rivals – Yanukovych and Yushchenko – of the same, in agreeing to pass a bill that raises minimum wages and pensions beyond the government’s fiscal capacity. She, however, obstinately refused to cut the budget this year, despite a plunge in tax revenues. She even raised wages for certain state workers in November.

There has been no shortage of allegations that Tymoshenko has blurred her roles as prime minister and presidential candidate, in effect “buying” votes using government resources at her disposal. At a meeting with chemical industry workers in Alchevsk, a bleak steelmaking town in Luhansk Oblast, she handed out keys to apartments bought by the state. She has also handed out deeds to state land across the country.

Her campaign spending has also been liberal. She has blanketed the nation with billboards, television advertisements, free calendars featuring Tymoshenko with a white tiger cub and rock-star concerts.

Billboards display Ukrainian pop stars declaring: “Yulia Tymoshenko is my president.” A New Year’s concert on Independence Square featured a performance by a number of these, along with a speech from Tymoshenko. In Alchevsk, Ani Lorak gave a concert to crowds of supporters, interrupted only by a brief appearance by Tymoshenko.

But despite the large-scale campaign, and her reputation as an excellent communicator, Tymoshenko has not gained ground on Yanukovych in polls during the campaign. Yuriy Yakymenko, head of policy research at the Razumkov Center think tank, said she has struggled because the government has been an easy target for attacks from Yanukovych during the crisis.

Nevertheless, she’s expected to give Yanukovych a tight race in the runoff on Feb. 7. She has called on all democratic forces among the defeated presidential candidates to unite behind her in the expected second-round showdown.

“Yanukovych has the advantage in the first round. But, from past experience, it is likely Tymoshenko will be able to concentrate more voters from the forces who vote for other candidates in the first round, or those who have not yet decided to vote yet,” said Yakymenko. “If she succeeds in getting voters out, she will win.”

[TsarSamuil]

Ukraine's Tymoshenko seeks better ties to Russia.

Ukrainian premier, former Kremlin critic, pledges better ties to Russia if she wins presidency.

SIMON SHUSTER
AP News
Jan 14, 2010 16:30 EST



The front-runners in Ukraine's presidential race have vowed to revive ties with Russia if elected — a strong signal that Sunday's vote could mark the end of the Western-oriented leadership ushered in by Ukraine's 2004 Orange Revolution.

Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, who sought to pull Ukraine out of Russia's sphere of influence and toward Europe during the Orange movement, said in a last-minute appeal to voters that as president she would work closely with Moscow.

Polls show Tymoshenko trailing pro-Russian opposition leader Viktor Yanukovych, the Orange forces' most prominent foe, in the closing hours of the contest for Ukraine's highest office.

Over the past year, Tymoshenko has developed a personal rapport with her Russian counterpart and former nemesis, Vladimir Putin. She has also courted voters, especially in the country's Russian-speaking east and south, who want an end to tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

The former communist states share deep historical, linguistic and ethnic ties, but Kiev and Moscow have clashed in recent years over everything from the status of the Russian language to Ukraine's bid to join NATO. The Orange Revolution was reviled in the Kremlin, which has since taken firm steps to avoid a similar opposition movement from arising in Russia.

In one of Tymoshenko's firmest statements about Russian ties during the long presidential race, she said Thursday that she would avoid antagonizing Moscow and seek a partnership that would benefit both countries.

"I want both sides to clearly understand each other's positions ... and build mutually beneficial relations," said Tymoshenko. "As the future president, I will aim for the most peaceful and constructive, but also firm and pragmatic, relations with Russia and other countries that are fundamentally tied to the national interests of Ukraine."

In November, Putin praised Tymoshenko in comments widely seen as an endorsement of her candidacy. "We feel comfortable working with Tymoshenko's government, and I think that during the time of our cooperation the relations between Russia and Ukraine have stabilized and strengthened," Putin said in the Ukrainian city of Yalta.

Tymoshenko was one of the leaders of the Orange movement who called for reform of Ukraine's notoriously corrupt government and tried to put the country on a path toward European integration.

But her alliance with President Viktor Yushchenko, the other leader of the Orange Revolution, broke down not long after the Orange victory amid recriminations and maneuvering for political advantage.

As the ruling duo, he and Tymoshenko have seen their popularity plummet largely because of their inability to handle the effects of the global financial crisis that hit Ukraine harder last year than almost any other country in Europe.

Yushchenko has seen his ratings plummet to the single-digits, making his re-election seem like a long shot. But the resilient Tymoshenko has retained sympathy among the electorate in part by tempering her attacks against the Kremlin and projecting the image of an industrious leader.

Known for her glamour and oratorical skills, Tymoshenko made her name and her fortune in the natural gas business as head of Ukraine's largest energy company in the 1990s.

Later she moved into politics as a foe of President Leonid Kuchma, who courted the West but maintained close ties to Moscow during his decade as president between 1994 to 2004.

She gained international attention in 2004 as the blond-braided leader of the Orange Revolution, the nonviolent street protests that ushered her and Yushchenko to power in 2005 amid high hopes of EU membership and freedom from Russia's influence.

In 2007, she wrote an article in the U.S. magazine Foreign Policy warning of Russia's "remorseless imperial ambition" and calling for the West to oppose "Russia's long-standing expansionism and its present desire to recapture its great-power status at the expense of its neighbors."

The article was written at a time when President George W. Bush was taking a firmer stand against Russia's continued dominance in the former Soviet Union, and NATO was actively considering membership for Ukraine and Georgia, despite Moscow's fierce objections.

Since then, the Obama administration has sought its own "reset" of relations with Moscow, seeking to reduce tensions with the Kremlin through talks on arms control and other issues. NATO has put Ukraine's and Georgia's membership plans on a back burner, while seeking greater help from Russia in the war in Afghanistan.

Tymoshenko, known for her quick wit, pragmatism and shrewd political instincts, has responded with a far more conciliatory tone toward the Kremlin, tacking with the shifting political winds.

Today, Yushchenko is the only adamant Westernizer remaining among the major candidates.

At a news conference Tuesday, Yushchenko criticized Tymoshenko, charging she had abandoned the Orange movement's ideals and struck a deal with Russia.

"Tymoshenko and Yanukovych are the united duo of the most complex and threatening Kremlin policy," Yushchenko said, charging that both were working on behalf of the Russian government.

In 2004, Yushchenko beat then-Prime Minsiter Yanukovych after Ukraine's high court threw out the results of a fraud-marred election. This year, polls show Yanukovych with the backing of about one third of voters while Yushchenko's support has been measured in single digits.

Like Tymoshenko, Yanukovych pledged Thursday to restore friendly relations with Russia if elected, "the kinds of relations the people of Ukraine and Russia have dreamed of throughout our history," he told local journalists in Kharkov, UNIAN news agency reported.

Local activists, meanwhile, staged a protest in central Kiev on Thursday to highlight what they saw as political prostitution in the campaigns. Members of the activist group FEMEN dressed as prostitutes and impersonated some of the leading candidates, underscoring a widespread sense of distrust toward government among Ukrainian voters.

[CHORNYVOLK]

www.network54.com/Forum/155335/thread/1263651868/last-1263651868/Intelligence+Guidance+%28Special+Edition%29-+Ukraine%27s+Presidential+Election

www.network54.com/Forum/155335/thread/1263393168/last-1263651038/The+De-Revolution+in+Kiev

[TsarSamuil]

CrossTalk on Ukraine: Clockwork Orange
www.youtube.com/watch?v=44u1CvAg2pI

[TsarSamuil]

Pro-Russian Viktor Yanukovich Leads in Ukraine Elections - Exit Poll.

Novinite.com
World | January 17, 2010, Sunday

Viktor Yanukovich, generally known as a pro-Russian candidate, is in the lead in Ukraine’s Presidential Elections taking place Sunday, according to an exit poll carried out by the Russian news agency Interfax.

The poll results show that 36,1% of the Ukrainian voters have backed Yanukovich, who was defeated by incumbent Viktor Yushchenko in the same elections five years ago in the so called “Orange Revolution.”

Ukrainian Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko is second with 20,7% of the votes, according to Interfax, Sergei Tigipko is third with 14,9%.

Incumbent President Viktor Yushchenko has received the support of some 6,1% of the respondents in the exit poll.

[boroslav]

Jan 17, 2010 11:42:44 GMT -5 TsarSamuil said:

Incumbent President Viktor Yushchenko has received the support of some 6,1% of the respondents in the exit poll.

What a loser.

[TsarSamuil]

Tymoshenko will win, I'd bet on this, on 2nd round, when she gathers those who voted for other candidates.

[TsarSamuil]

Back to the future: Ukraine gears up for Yulia versus Viktor.

RussiaToday.com
18 January, 2010, 19:24

Ukraine has reduced the presidential playing field to Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko and her formidable rival Viktor Yanukovich, as observers attempt to predict which way Kiev’s political winds are blowing.

It would be difficult to name another modern politician whose political fortunes have crashed harder and faster than that of Ukraine’s incumbent President Viktor Yushchenko.

Just six years ago, during the dramatic showdown known as the Orange Revolution, thousands of Ukrainians camped out in freezing Kiev for endless days in a massive show of support for pro-Western Yushchenko and his iconoclastic sidekick, the golden-braided Yulia Timoshenko.

Despite such glorious beginnings, the promise of a new dawn for Ukraine eventually fell along the wayside as political infighting, economic crisis, and a vain search for national identity exposed Yushchenko’s lofty aspirations as chauvinistic flights of fancy.

This was proven on Sunday as the Ukrainian president, suffering basement ratings amid a grinding economic crisis, ran as a ghost of his former heroic self, pulling around 5 percent of the presidential vote.

Sunday also witnessed the stunning political comeback of Viktor Yanukovich, the incumbent party’s long-term rival who says he can bring Ukraine closer to the West, while still maintaining healthy relations with Russia. So far it is proving to be a winning formula: With about 75 percent of the votes counted by Monday, Kiev claimed Yanukovich, the leader of Ukraine's Party of Regions party, had pulled 36.2 percent of the votes, while Timoshenko received just 24.6 percent.

Since no candidate received the minimum percentage of votes to declare victory, the issue will be resolved on February 7 as Yanukovich, who enjoys broad support in eastern Ukraine, and Timoshenko, who preaches a more “pro-Western” policy, go head to head to decide the winner.

Where did Yushchenko go wrong?

If there is one thing that both Timoshenko and Yanukovich can agree upon, especially after Yushchenko’s orange experiment failed to produce fruit, it is that Ukraine must normalize relations with Russia.

Aside from calming the gas flare ups that erupt with annoying regularity between Kiev and Moscow, Ukraine needs to demonstrate that it is not a full-blown enemy of Russia. Indeed, poking the Russian bear at every opportunity seems to have been part and parcel of Yushchenko’s western-leaning political program from day one.

In August, things came to a nasty head between the neighbor states when Russian President Dmitry Medvedev wrote an open letter to his Ukrainian counterpart, criticizing him for “anti-Russian policies” that he said had brought relations between the countries to “unprecedented lows.”

After voicing his opposition to Ukrainian membership in NATO, the cold war military bloc that Russia views as a sprawling security threat in its geopolitical backyard, Medvedev charged Kiev with supporting “an openly anti-Russian position” during Georgia’s ill-conceived attempt to annex South Ossetia with military force in August 2008.

“Kiev has adopted an openly anti-Russian position regarding the Saakashvili regime’s military attack on South Ossetia,” Mr. Medvedev wrote in his Web posting. “Ukrainian weapons killed peaceful citizens and Russian peacekeepers.”

“The charges come at a time of a deep economic downturn and political discord in Ukraine, with a seemingly intractable power struggle between President Yushchenko and his main pro-Western rival, Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko,” The New York Times wrote in November 2008, when the scandal first went public in Ukraine. “The Parliament has often been stalemated, and President Yushchenko’s popularity has plunged.”

At the weekend, Viktor Yanukovich, 59, told the Komsomolskaya Pravda Ukraina newspaper that he would keep Ukraine out of military blocs, including the NATO alliance, membership of which has been one of Yushchenko’s stated goals.

“Ukraine, quite simply, has been and will be a state outside any blocs,” the former prime minister pledged. “We will not aspire to enter… NATO.”

But Yanukovich said he would consider Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's proposal for a new European collective security system, which must have been music to Moscow’s ears.

Since February 2007, when then-Russian President Vladimir Putin warned about US military overstretch during a global security conference in Munich, Moscow has been talking up the need for a new international security paradigm.

In June 2008, Medvedev floated the idea for a multilateral structure for European-Atlantic security that would work on multilateral (as opposed to unilateral) basis. The new security structure would encompass NATO, the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO).

The proposal received a lukewarm response in the West.

Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko, delicately skirting the NATO issue (she previously went on record as saying she supported a referendum before any decision is made regarding Ukraine’s membership in the military bloc) pledged before this weekend's presidential polls to bring Ukraine into the EU within five years if she wins the presidency.

“Ukraine must become a member of the European Union and for me that is a priority. I will do everything so that during my presidency Ukraine becomes a member of the EU,” she said.
Ukraine’s presidential mandate is for five years.

Timoshenko continues to perform an elegant balancing act between the EU and Russia. Western leaders would probably prefer to work with such a leader, who has a more pro-Western record than her “pro-Russian” opponent, Yanukovich, who has even vowed to restore the Russian language in Ukraine where 17 % of the population of 50 million people is native Russian.

On another contentious front, Yanukovych said that Russia should pay a higher price for the stationing of its Black Sea Fleet in Crimea. And although Moscow may not like the idea of digging deeper into its pockets to park its battleships, it is a far more promising prospect than losing the basing privileges altogether.

“I have always said that the price for the lease of land in Crimea used by the Black Sea Fleet base should be market-based,” Yanukovich said. “It should be economically justified. This is a matter to be resolved between the two sides. This is a correct and fair issue. If you look at this issue from this angle, it is a right thing to do.”

Many Ukrainians view this as a nice compromise with Russia, which has long advocated a “return to market rates” in deciding the price that Ukraine must pay for its gas deliveries. Ukrainians will revel in the satisfaction of lecturing Moscow to “pay the market rate” (how to determine such a commodity price is quite another question) for the use of the Crimean port.

Furthermore, Yushchenko alluded to “security reasons” for allowing Russia’s Black Sea Fleet to remain in Ukrainian territory. For a Ukrainian politician to suggest that the presence of Russia’s military will improve home security is certainly a radical new position, but given the enhanced terrorist threat it seems to make perfectly good sense. NATO forces, after all, cannot protect the entire globe.

“It is also very important to think about what serves our interests,” Yanukovich told Ukrainian media. “If we are talking about the creation of a European security system much talked about in Europe today… we should find an answer to the question whether Ukraine should keep this base in Crimea. Will this create additional ways to enhance our country's security or not?”

“We are talking about national interests,” the presidential candidate stressed. “There is nothing personal here. I will always defend national interests in the most resolute way.”

On the energy front, which has long been Timoshenko’s strong domain since hammering out a deal with Putin last winter, Yanukovych criticized the incumbent government for losing “trustful and partner relations with Russia.”

According to Yanukovich, Ukraine lost a valuable opportunity to be an active player in Russia's Nord Stream and South Stream gas projects. He then rebuked the Ukraine-EU declaration on the joint modernization of the Ukrainian gas transport system as “unviable” and which, in his view, will only serve to provoke an angry reaction from Russia.

“Russia's reaction was absolutely predictable and natural,” he said. “If the goal was to provoke Russia, this goal was attained. If the goal was to find a solution to the modernization of the gas transport system and to pump more gas, to improve the system's reliability, then this was not attained. What we heard was just another declaration which failed to attain its goal.”

Timoshenko has long made reliable gas deliveries a crucial issue, and she reached a new agreement on gas trade with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin last November in Yalta, southern Ukraine.

“It's comfortable for us to work with the Timoshenko government,” Putin said after his meeting, in which lucrative agreements were reached in other industries as well.

Both Timoshenko and Yanukovich are reportedly engaged in talks with Sergei Tigipko, the banker who came in third with 13.22% of the vote, to win their voters’ support in the runoff election.

Tigipko, the leader of Strong Ukraine Party, has said he will not publicly endorse a candidate in February’s election, but will work with the winner of the election if he or she supports a modernization program.

“If a public position on the country's modernization is taken and if the president is ready to make even unpopular steps and bear responsibility for them, I am, as any honest man, ready to put my signature under such policy,” he said.

Robert Bridge, RT

[TsarSamuil]

Ukraine PM Offers Premiership to Presidential Election Rival.

Novinite.com
World | January 20, 2010, Wednesday

Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko, one of the presidential candidates in the February run-off vote, has announced that she has offered her premiership to Sergey Tigipko, who polled third in Sunday’s first round.

"I proposed to Sergey Tigipko not only that we unite our programmes, our vision of Ukraine's development, not only to be his reliable partner in the difficult but rewarding work. I offered him the position of prime minister," Tymoshenko said on Wednesday.

Earlier, Tigipko had said he would support neither opposition leader Viktor Yanukovych nor Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko, who will compete in the second round of presidential elections.

"I decided to adopt a neutral position. Allow them to lead a political battle among themselves," said the former president of the Central Bank Tigipko, who had received 13% of the votes in Sunday's election.

He said that he had held conversations with both Yanukovych and Timoshenko.

"There were specific suggestions, but my position has not changed," he said, given his promise not to support any of the favorites.

The first round of presidential elections in Ukraine was won by Yanukovych with 35% of the vote against 25% for Tymoshenko. Both candidates are trying to attract the votes of the other candidates, to secure victory in the ballot vote on February 7.

[pastir]

I can't figure out this Tihipko guy. I'm leaning to him being a spoiler working with Janukovič to try to draw votes away from Timošenko, since he was/is a member of the Party of Regions. But it's hard to figure this out from only English language reports. We would really need an Ukrainian to tell us.

In any case Janukovič should win with a handsome margin. He already has the vote of the Communist party in his pocket which takes him to 40%. Timošenko was hurt for presiding over this economic crisis. She fell bellow Janukovič in popularity in late 2008 and has only been loosing more since.

It is not possible all would rally behind Timošenko, I saw this very detailed poll from the time around September-October and it had 25% saying they would never vote for Janukovič and 31% saying they would never vote for Timošenko (for Juščenko it was 43%). So some kind of a Serbian style anti-Janukovič grand coalition is a pipe dream, albeit I did notice some wishful thinking in the western press to this theme.

[pastir]

Yanukovych versus Tymoshenko

en.rian.ru/analysis/20100120/157627000.html

How have the sympathies of Ukrainian voters changed after the first round of the January 17 presidential elections?

Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko did not take part in the 2004 presidential elections because she actively supported Viktor Yushchenko at that time.

Consequently, her results compare with those scored by the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc (BYUT) in the 2007 elections to the Verkhovna Rada (Parliament).

At that time, BYUT received 30.71% of votes. Right now, the Ukrainian Central Election Commission estimates that Tymoshenko is supported by just over 25%, a 5%-plus decline.

Although her campaign headquarters predicted a landslide victory, this forecast did not come true. Tymoshenko suffered the main setback in Kiev, which is dominated by her electorate.

Although BYUT received 46.18% of votes in the Ukrainian capital in 2007, Tymoshenko was now supported by just 36% of local voters.

Tymoshenko also received fewer votes in most eastern and southern Ukrainian regions on 2007.

She is in no position to expect the defection of other candidates' voters in the run-up to the second election round.

For instance, Verkhovna Rada Speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn is mostly supported by rural residents who are unlikely to side with Tymoshenko.

But to some extent she can count on the Interior Ministry personnel, the largest national security agency headed by one of her closest supporters Yury Lutsenko.

Viktor Yanukovych, the current leader of the influential opposition Party of Regions in the Verkhovna Rada and Tymoshenko's main rival, received over 35%, which is less than in the 2004 presidential elections (39.26% in the first round).

Nevertheless, Yanukovych has managed to preserve his influence in eight eastern and southern Ukrainian regions, the Crimea and Sevastopol. He has also won first place in Ukraine's westernmost Carpathian region.

As far as central Ukraine is concerned, Yanukovych's results largely compare with the 2007 Rada elections.

The total defeat of the current president Viktor Yushchenko has made Yanukovych's victory possible. Yushchenko's call not to support any of the candidates may deprive Tymoshenko of several vitally important percentage points of the "democratic electorate."

At the same time, Yanukovych will inevitably be supported by the electorate of Ukrainian Communist leader Petro Simonenko, who received 3.54% votes in the first round.

All contenders will also have to court the electorate of Ukrainian banker Serhiy Tyhypko, who received over 13% of votes on January 17.

Many analysts are now inclined to think that Tyhypko owns a veritable "golden share" and that the name of Ukraine's fourth president depends on his choice.

Although Tymoshenko's campaign headquarters tried hard to portray Tyhypko as an unviable candidate, it was her former supporters who now turned to him. This came as an unpleasant surprise for Tymoshenko.

Moreover, it appears that Tymoshenko and Tyhypko have conflicting business interests.

Tyhypko owns the major Kiev-based TAS financial group and maintains close ties with Ihor Kolomoysky, owner of Privat business group with interests in metal and financial sectors.

Relations between Tymoshenko and Kolomoysky were soured some time ago, probably due to his refusal to finance Tymoshenko's election campaign.

On the eve of the election, Tymoshenko's authorized spokesperson said she would nationalize Privat assets in the Ukrainian oil industry. As this may directly affect Tyhypko's interests, he is unlikely to support Tymoshenko.

Yanukovych and Tymoshenko, who have made it into the second round, must do their best to win the support of undecided voters accounting for about 10% of the entire electorate.

One can safely say that the campaign headquarters of both Tymoshenko and Yanukovych will prioritize this issue in the run-up to the second round of presidential elections, scheduled to be held on February 7.

Innokenty Adyasov is a member of the expert analytical council at the Russian State Duma's CIS affairs committee.

MOSCOW. (Innokenty Adyasov, special for RIA Novosti)

The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.