Volga, Caucasus & Central Asia.

[TsarSamuil]

Vid,
rt.com/Top_News/2010-09-09/terror-attack-vladikavkaz-explosion.html

Bomb rocks Russia’s south.

RT.com
09 September, 2010, 15:05


Russian Federation: Russian investigators examine the site of a blast near a market in Vladikavkaz on September 9, 2010. (AFP Photo / Dina Tezieva)

Seventeen people have been killed and more than 130 injured as a powerful car bomb attack hit the central market in the city of Vladikavkaz, the capital of the republic of North Ossetia-Alania.

The youngest victim was only 18 months old. The boy died in hospital.

Eight children were among those taken to a local hospital.

There may be more victims as “in the first minutes after the blast, injured were being carried away by their friends and relatives who transported them to hospitals in taxis,” the republic’s deputy emergency minister Kazbek Bekmurzov told Itar-Tass new agency.

The deputy health minister of North Ossetia, Taimuraz Revazov, said that “many of those hospitalized are in a serious condition. They have suffered greatly from the shrapnel that the explosive device contained.”

A plane with aid and medical help sent by Russia's Emergencies Ministry has arrived at the scene. The aircraft will take the 20 most seriously injured victims to Moscow hospitals.

A second plane of the same capacity is preparing to take off for Vladikavkaz.

Reports say the explosion was so powerful that it damaged nearby buildings. Preliminary reports suggest that the bomb's force was equivalent to around 40 kilos of TNT.

Police say another bomb has been found at the gates of the market, and the area has been evacuated.

Police have cordoned off the site and nearby streets. They have also evacuated schools and kindergartens in the area.
Investigation underway

Three suspects have been captured in connection to the blast, Russia’s Federal Security Service reported later Thursday.

Earlier President Medvedev has had a meeting with security ministers to discuss the attack, and has given his orders on investigating the case.

"I would first of all like to say to all the people of Nouth Ossetia that we are mourning the victims, innocent victims of this terrible tragedy," President Medvedev said.

"Our first priority is to give medical help to those who are injured in Vladikavkaz , Moscow or elsewhere it is needed and to offer moral and financial support to victims and their families," Dmitry Medvedev added.

Investigators are treating the attack as terrorism.

“The Ministry of Internal Affairs, as well as the FSB, are currently identifying those involved in the blast,” head of the republic of North Ossetia Taimuraz Mamsurov told a press conference following the attack. “We need to use the most severe measures to eliminate these monsters.”

The case will now fall under the control of Russia’s chief prosecutor, Yury Chaika.

Friday, September 10 has been declared a day of mourning in the region.

According to preliminary information, the explosive device was detonated by a suicide bomber. The owner of the car used for the attack has been detained and is being interrogated, Interfax news agency says.

He claims that on the eve of the tragedy he sold it to an unknown man.

A source in the North Caucasus Federal District law enforcement has said that half an hour before the blast, the driver of the car produced his ID at a checkpoint when entering the republic, though it is possible that the document was fake.

It's not the first time Vladikavkaz have been targeted by terrorists. The last attack in 2008 claimed the lives of 12 people.

Thursday's incident comes months after two deadly blasts in the Moscow Metro stations. The explosion in North Ossetia prompted police to strengthen security in the capital.

Local infighting or part of global terrorist network plan?

Hopefully, security forces will be vigilant and will prevent a new blast from happening – at least in the next few days [during the Global Policy Forum], said political analyst Dmitry Babich.

“North Ossetia has been a target for terrorist attacks for a long time. I would like to remind you, that Shamil Basayev, when he was alive, called North Ossetia ‘a Russian garrison in the North Caucasus,’ because Ossetian are the only ethnic group in the North Caucasus – besides Russians – which is predominantly Orthodox Christian. Vladikavkaz, and especially its markets, were very often victims of the terrorist attacks,” Babich told RT.

The central market in Vladikavkaz is one of the busiest areas in the city. It has already suffered two terrorist attacks in the past: one in 1999, which killed more than 50 people, and another in 2008, which left 12 more dead.

Matthew Clements, a terrorism expert with Jane's defense group in London, says the blast in Vladikavkaz is most likely a specific attack against Russia, not part of the wider global terrorist movement.

“The Caucasus insurgents known as the Caucasus Emirate, is a very much localized militant operation, the targets almost entirely based within the North Caucasus itself,” he said.

Sergey Arutyunov, Head of Caucasus department at Institute of Ethnology and anthropology with Russia’s Academy of Science agrees, saying today's attack is not an isolated incident, but part of a concerted campaign of terror in the North Caucasus.

“These tragic events have an ominous frequency. It’s not the first time the blast occurred on the same market. So we may suggest that’s hardly an accident but rather a trend,” Arutyunov told RT.

But security analyst Aleksandr Selivanov says the militants behind the attack are linked to Al-Qaeda and aim to take a hold on the region.

“There aim is to destabilize the situation in North Caucasus and Central Asia. They are trying to boost their sphere of influence, that’s first of all,” he said.

Selivanov's words were echoed by the US State Department later in the day. The counter-terrorism coordinator at the department also said the United States is willing to help Russia in its fight against terrorism in the region.

The terrorists behind the attack had a bigger agenda than just wreaking havoc among the people and possibly had external support, political expert and editor-in-chief of the analytical Slovo magazine, Victor Linnik says.

“What we are dealing with here, I think, is a sustained and determined effort on the part of some to create political instability on the eve of presidential and parliamentary elections to which Russia is moving fast. I think it’s impossible to carry this out without money and assistance from outside Russia,” Linnik told RT.

The latest attack comes just a month after Russia’s much-talked-about operation against militants in the North Caucasus, where some 40 were killed.

The blast looks like an act of retaliation and skeptics say the more militants are killed, the more are born. Andrey Murtazin of RIA Novosti news agency says the terrorists want to discredit the current political leaders in the Caucasus region – and have vengeance in mind.

“I think terrorists want to take revenge for the Beslan school siege. During this year's commemoration events, the security forces were on high alert, so no terrorist acts were carried out. Now [that] security measures have been slightly weakened, the terrorists attacked people,” Murtazin told RT.

“The terrorists [who] blew-up the car just want to destabilize the situation in the North Caucasus and discredit the current leaders in the area. They want to show that the state's authorities are failing to provide stability in the region,” he maintains.

However, Viktor Kamyshanov, president of the Federation for Peace and Conciliation, says the problem lies much deeper and tight co-operation on all levels is needed.

“Politicians, military, the security forces – they have to think together with the civil society and with spiritual leaders in order to understand what is really going on.”

[TsarSamuil]

Vid,
rt.com/Top_News/2010-09-09/vladikavkaz-blast-eyewitness-account.html

“We live in a tinderbox” – Vladikavkaz resident.

RT.com
09 September, 2010, 16:49

RT managed to get accounts of what happened from some of the eyewitnesses and locals. People are shocked by the tragedy.

Zaira Abayeva was in the pavilion at the market when the blast occurred.

“I didn’t hear much. We were sitting there talking and then we heard some debris fall on the ground – that was it. We came outside and saw dead bodies on the ground,” she says. “I didn’t look at the time. I think it was around 11.”

Another local woman says she cannot find her daughter-in-law, who was at the market when all happened.

“A grandmother was killed along with one of her grandchildren. My daughter-in-law went to the market and I still don’t know if she is alive. She hasn’t called me. I am so sorry to lose them,” she cried. “I was at home. My house is on the street nearby so I heard it. I don’t know what happened. I came here and they told me that everyone died. The people who had a fruit stand here, the woman who sold greens… they have all been killed,” she said.

Eyewitness Ernest Akadzhan said his friend works at the market as a jeweler and survived only by chance.

“They survived because they entered a shop across the street from the bombing scene right before the explosion. His mother happened to be standing behind a pillar when the bomb went off – she survived. A woman was standing in the doorway and this is what we pulled out of her leg, look!” Akadzhan said, showing a large piece of twisted debris.

RT also managed to get through to one local resident via phone, though the phone connection in Vladikavkaz is very bad at the moment as a result of the attack.

Natalya Khostroyeva said she is used to living in fear of violence.

“Central and key streets have been cordoned off. I live in the city center. We heard the blast, but couldn't tell where it came from. We learned from our neighbors that there’d been an explosion at the market. Naturally, I did not let my child go to school,” she said. “I heard that there might be a second blast, as is often the case. We are living in a tinderbox. People are being evacuated from the building and I cannot enter it. I don’t know what’s awaiting me. I cannot reach anyone. The connection is poor; it’s impossible to dial a single number – I cannot even get through to my own home. Basically, the situation is very difficult. It’s impossible to get used to it, but we have to live with it,” Khostroyeva said.

[TsarSamuil]

Police officer shot dead in Russia’s Dagestan.

Unidentified assailants gunned down a police officer in Russia’s North Caucasus republic of Dagestan early on Friday, police said.

The attack took place in the village of Sulak, part of the republic’s Kizilyurtovsky district.

The attackers fled after the shooting.

Dagestan, as well as nearby Ingushetia, sees almost daily militant attacks on police, troops and officials.

MAKHACHKALA, September 10 (RIA Novosti)

[TsarSamuil]

Number of injured in Russia's Vladikavkaz bombing up to 173.

The official list of people injured in Thursday's suicide bombing at a market in the southern Russian city of Vladikavkaz has increased by six to 173, regional officials said on Sunday.

Seventeen people, not counting the bomber, were killed in the explosion in the capital of the North Caucasus republic of North Ossetia.

"In total, 120 are receiving inpatient treatment in hospitals, not counting those who were sent for inpatient treatment in hospitals in Moscow," the Health Ministry of North Ossetia said.

Late on Thursday, 12 hours after the attack, the republic's Health Ministry said the number of injured was 138.

The federal government has announced that people injured in the blast will receive between 200,000 rubles ($6,500) and 400,000 rubles ($13,000).

Relatives of those killed will receive 1 million rubles ($33,000) in compensation.

VLADIKAVKAZ, September 12 (RIA Novosti)

[TsarSamuil]

Hundreds protest after deadly Caucasus blast.

by Dina Teziyeva – Sat Sep 11, 8:36 am ET

VLADIKAVKAZ, Russia (AFP) – Over 300 mainly young people on Saturday staged a protest outside the main government building in the Russian Caucasus city of Vladikavkaz where 17 were killed by a suicide bomb blast.

The demonstrators were protesting against the failure of the authorities to prevent the attack on the main market in the city, the capital of the Caucasus region of North Ossetia, an AFP correspondent reported.

They demanded a meeting with Taimuraz Mamsurov, the leader of North Ossetia which is the the only majority Christian region in the mainly Muslim Russian North Caucasus.

The protest also had nationalist overtones, as the Christian Ossetian protesters shouted slogans against the neighbouring Muslim region of Ingushetia, from where the suicide bomber is believed to have come.

"If the the police cannot do their task then they should resign," said one speaker at the demonstration.

"If Ossetia is Russia's forward post in the Caucasus then let Russians protect Ossetians from neighbouring regions," shouted another.

The protest was not officially sanctioned by the authorities but a heavy police presence did nothing to prevent it taking place.

"We demand to close the administrative border with Ingushetia so that it can save people's lives," said Vlad Kolparov, one of the young men protesting.

Mamsurov did not appear to speak to the protestors but North Ossetia deputy interior minister Soslan Sikoyev came out to talk to the participants.

The suicide bomber killed 17 and wounded at least 150 in Thursday's attack when he drove up to an entrance of the main market in Vladikavkaz in a white Volga car and detonated his charge.

The protests came as the grieving relatives gathered Saturday for the first funerals of 10 of the victims from the blast.

Investigators believe the bomber drove from neighbouring Ingushetia and the Kommersant daily said Saturday that security forces failed to check the vehicle on the administrative border between Ingushetia and North Ossetia.

The attack risks reigniting tensions between the Ossetians and Ingush who have a history of uneasy relations.

They fought a brief but deadly conflict in the 1990s over the Prigorodny Raion, a district which became part of North Ossetia under the Soviet Union and has been disputed by the Ingush ever since.

The 1992 conflict claimed hundreds of lives and created tens of thousands of Ingush refugees.

North Ossetia was the site of one of Russia's most shocking tragedies in 2004 when more than 330 people died after armed Chechen rebels took more than 1,000 people hostage at a school in the town of Beslan.

Another protestor, Viktor Yesiyev, said he had no confidence in the authorities to protect North Ossetia. "These are the people who did not respond to the Beslan terror act and they will not reply to what happened here."

[TsarSamuil]

Vid,
en.rian.ru/video/20100913/160576423.html

Special services destroy militant gang in Dagestan.

A special operation on eliminating the militants involved in the murder of Gapal Gadzhiyev, head of the Interior Ministry’s inter-regional department for the fight against extremism in Russia's North Caucasus Federal District, was conducted in Makhachkala, the capital of the North Caucasus republic of Dagestan. The locals helped the law enforcement officers to track down the criminals.

Eight militants, including one woman, were shot dead during the operation. The officers have suffered no human losses.

[TsarSamuil]

Poland issues arrest order for Chechen separatist leader Zakayev.

Poland's prosecutor's office has issued an order to detain the prime minister of the unrecognized republic of Ichkeria, Akhmed Zakayev, ahead of a visit to Poland for a Chechen congress, a police spokesperson said on Wednesday.

Zakayev is due in Warsaw for a World Congress of Chechen people on September 16-18.

The former Chechen deputy premier will be arrested if he steps onto Polish territory, the spokesperson said.

In 2002, British authorities granted political asylum to Zakayev and he currently lives in London.

Russia, which issued an international arrest warrant for Zakayev in 2001, has accused him of terrorist activities and repeatedly asked Britain to extradite him, but the request has invariably been refused.

Zakayev, who has frequently spoken out against Islamic radicalism in the North Caucasus, denied in 2009 claims by Russia's security services that he was "attempting to revive the militant movement" in the region.

He also said he was ready for talks with Chechen head Ramzan Kadyrov, who subsequently said he would welcome Zakayev's return to Chechnya.

WARSAW, September 15 (RIA Novosti)

[TsarSamuil]

Chechen congress in Warsaw will destabilize Russian North Caucasus - Foreign Minister.

The World Congress of Chechen People, due to begin in Warsaw on Thrusday, will further aggravate the volatile situation in Russia's North Caucasus, the Russian foreign minister said on Wednesday.

"We warn our European partners that representatives of the so-called Republic of Ichkeria [the name Chechen separatists give to Chechnya] are trying to organize events, which... aim to aggravate the situation in the North Caucasus," Sergey Lavrov said.

"According to our information, a number of those expected to take part in the congress are on international wanted lists," he added. "We hope that our Polish partners are taking this into account."

Polish police said earlier on Wednesday that the prime minister of the unrecognized republic of Ichkeria, Akhmed Zakayev, would be arrested if he enters Polish territory to attend the congress.

In 2002, British authorities granted political asylum to Zakayev and he currently lives in London.

Russia, which issued an international arrest warrant for Zakayev in 2001, has accused him of terrorist activities and repeatedly asked Britain to extradite him, but the request has invariably been refused.

MURMANSK, September 15 (RIA Novosti)

[TsarSamuil]

Sounded too good to be true...

-----------

Poland 'to arrest' Chechen terror suspect on Russia's Most Wanted list.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=pB2td3Kmeuw

RussiaToday | September 15, 2010

Poland has issued an order to detain an ethnic Chechen wanted by Russia on terrorism charges. Ahmed Zakayev currently lives in Britain, where he has been granted political asylum. He is expected to arrive in Poland on Thursday to take part in an international Chechen congress near the capital Warsaw.

-------------------

Poland says no warrant for Chechen separatist Zakayev, but will detain him (Update 1)

Poland's Prosecutor General's Office has not issued an arrest warrant for exiled Chechen separatist Akhmed Zakayev, but police will detain him if he arrives in Warsaw for a Chechen congress, a spokesman said on Wednesday.

The World Congress of Chechen people, which Zakayev is invited to, is due to take place in Warsaw on September 16-18.

A Polish police spokesman said earlier on Wednesday that the Prosecutor General's Office had issued an arrest warrant for Zakayev.

"This information was false. The Polish prosecutor's office has not issued an additional arrest warrant against Akhmed Zakayev because there is no case against him in Poland," Mateusz Martyniuk said, adding that Zakayev, prime minister of the self-styled Chechen republic of Ichkeria, will still be detained if he sets his foot on the Polish soil.

In 2002, British authorities granted political asylum to Zakayev and he currently lives in London.

Russia, which issued an arrest warrant for Zakayev in 2001, has accused him of terrorist activities and repeatedly asked Britain to extradite him, but the request has invariably been refused.

While the Russian authorities claim he aims to reignite the separatist movement in the troubled North Caucasus, Chechen president Ramzan Kadyrov says he will welcome Zakayev's return to Chechnya.

WARSAW, September 15 (RIA Novosti)

[TsarSamuil]

Chechen leader in Poland, chances of arrest ‘zero’

Thenews.pl
16.09.2010 17:59

Akhmed Khalidovich Zakayev has arrived in Warsaw to attend the Chechen Nation World Congress near the capital but will not face extradition to Russia, reports the PAP news agency.

Earlier today the Attorney General’s office said that if the Chechen leader, who is wanted by Russian on terrorism charges, steps foot in Poland then they would be compelled to arrest him.

Interpol also has an warrant out for the arrest of Zakayev - who has lived in London for some years - which would force Poland to consider an extradition request from Russia.

But an anonymous source close to the government in Warsaw told the PAP news agency that the chances of Zakayev being handed over to the Russians “were zero”.

Speaker of Parliament Grzegorz Schetyna also said that he “cannot not imagine Zakayev being even arrested in Poland”.

The leader of the unrecognised Chechen government-in-exile says that he has received a visa from Polish authorities.

“I received a visa to travel to Poland and I intend to go there. I do not know about any arrest warrant do not know,” he told Ekho Moskvy radio before arriving in Warsaw.

If the Chechen was extradited back to Russia he would face charges connected with the Moscow theatre hostage massacre back in 2002. (pg)

[TsarSamuil]

This is such nonsense...KGB would either have whacked him or kidnapped him n put him on a plane to Moscow for trial. Moscow has become too soft.

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Vid,
rt.com/Top_News/2010-09-17/zakayev-turns-himself-polish.html

Russia has ample proof of Zakayev's guilt for Poland - lawmaker.

Russia can provide Poland with reams of additional evidence of Chechen separatist leader Akhmed Zakayev's guilt, a deputy of the Russian lower house of parliament said Friday.

"There is a huge evidentiary base. If need be, Moscow will present even greater confirmation of this. I have not doubt that Zakayev will be tried in Russia to the full extent of the law," said Leonid Slutsky, first deputy head of the State Duma international affairs committee.

Zakayev, in Poland for a Chechen people's congress, was detained in Warsaw earlier on Friday and taken to a district prosecutor's office. Zakayev said he was on his way to the prosecutor's office to present materials relating to Russia's charges against him.

"We build our relations with Poland on the basis of the norms of international law. So I think Poland will grant Moscow's request on Zakayev's extradition to Russia," Slutsky told journalists.

Russia placed Zakayev on the international wanted list in 2001 on terrorism charges. He was granted political asylum by Britain in 2003. Russia has repeatedly asked Britain to extradite him, but the request has invariably been refused.

Polish prosecutors decided on Friday to ask a Polish court to consider extending Zakayev's arrest, the separatist leader's lawyer told journalists.

In 2002, Zakayev was arrested in Denmark at Moscow's request, but then released as Denmark said Russia did not provide sufficient evidence to justify his extradition.

Zakayev, who led attacks on federal forces during the first Chechen War, denied in 2009 claims by Russia's security services that he was "attempting to revive the militant movement" in the region.

He also said he was ready for talks with Chechen head Ramzan Kadyrov, who subsequently said he would welcome Zakayev's return to Chechnya.

MOSCOW, September 17 (RIA Novosti)

[TsarSamuil]

A rock & a hard place: Will Poland extradite top Russian terror suspect?

www.youtube.com/watch?v=NbepfbX8l3M

RussiaToday | September 17, 2010

Polish police have detained Chechen militant envoy Akhmed Zakayev as he was on his way to a local prosecutors' office, a supporter of Mr. Zakayev told the press. Zakayev arrived in Poland to take part in the so-called World Chechen Congress, which is being held near Warsaw on September 16-18. The man is wanted in Russia on charges of taking part in terrorist formations. Interpol has declared Zakayev internationally wanted on Russia's request. RT's Anissa Naouai talks to James Sherr from the Royal Institute of International Affairs which in London.

[TsarSamuil]

Vid,
rt.com/Top_News/2010-09-20/south-ossetia-independence-anniversary.html

South Ossetia marks 20 years of independence.

RT.com
20 September, 2010, 12:13

The Republic of South Ossetia is celebrating 20 years since it declared independence. Since 1990 it has faced several military conflicts amid continuous attempts by Georgia to bring it back under control.

On September 20, 1990, the local parliament declared South Ossetia independent from Georgia.

At that time, the Soviet Union was falling apart and independence declarations in the region were following one after the other.

For the Elbakidze family in South Ossetia, Independence Day always starts with hustle and bustle. Not just because it is a national holiday, they also have their own independence child – Ruslan. Just as little Ruslan was coming into this world – a new republic was born.

But Georgia did not want to allow it – it cut the electricity to freeze the breakaway region and sent in troops. For little Ruslan “that meant that since his first day he has been hearing blasts and gunshots. His first words were – mom, a blast!” Ruslan’s mother Raya Elbakidze remembers.

Back then, the Georgian army had surrounded Tskhinval.

At one point people in the city couldn't even bury their dead – troops had blocked the road to the cemetery. Instead, they were forced to use the yard of a local school.

“When I was little I used to come here – but I lived close by and saw this place even out of my window. I remember how often people cried here when they were burying the dead,” said Ruslan.

To escape the ongoing violence, Ruslan’s family had to flee to Russia – as did tens of thousands of Ossetians.

The conflict remained frozen until in August 2008 when Georgia once again resorted to violence to take control over the republic.

When Georgia attacked Tskhinval, it was Ruslan was worried most about his grandmothers living there.

“They were sitting in the basement, the phone lines worked really badly. When they managed to get through they said the city was attacked. People were killed, they stormed and burned the houses,” Ruslan said.

Thankfully, Ruslan's grandmothers survived the five day war.

Moscow sent forces to repel the Georgian attack as many of those under fire were Russian citizens – civilians and peacekeepers.

Later, Russia recognized the independence of South Ossetia, as did other countries such as Venezuela and Nicaragua.

[TsarSamuil]

Chechen separatist leader leaves Poland, expected to return.

Chechen separatist leader Akhmed Zakayev has left Poland for London but should return later this week, his representative Adam Borowski said on Monday.

Zakayev wants to renew his Polish visa and then return to Poland to attend meetings originally scheduled for when he was being questioned by prosecutors, Borowski said, according to Thenews.pl portal.

Zakayev walked out of a Polish court on Friday evening several hours after he was arrested at Russia's request. Polish prosecutors asked the Warsaw District Court to extend Zakayev's arrest for 40 days but their request was denied.

Prosecutors will make a statement on whether they will appeal the decision later on Monday.

Moscow wants Zakayev to return to Russia to face terrorism, murder, kidnapping and other charges. Prosecutors said after his arrest that they were preparing an extradition request.

Zakayev has been on an international wanted list since 2001 but he was granted political asylum by Britain in 2003. Russia has repeatedly asked Britain to extradite him, but the request has been repeatedly refused.

MOSCOW, September 20 (RIA Novosti)

[TsarSamuil]

ROAR: Radical groups “may repeat civil war scenario in Tajikistan”

RT.com
21 September, 2010, 16:13

The clashes between Islamic groups and the government may lead Tajikistan to a new civil war, analysts warn.

A Defense Ministry convoy came under attack in Kamarob Gorge of the Rasht district on September 19. According to the ministry, 23 servicemen were killed “by foreign mercenaries from Pakistan, Afghanistan and Chechnya.” Other sources say that up to 40 people were killed and dozens were injured in the fight.

Observers say that corruption and poverty may lead the country to instability. “The escape of prisoners, explosion in Khudzhand, the Sunday attack on army soldiers and officers are forming one chain, the roots of which lie in total corruption,” Tajik political analyst Abudgani Mamadazimov told Interfax.

However, he expressed hope that people “still remember all the horrors of civil war and will not agree to repeat it.”

The Tajik authorities have made “numerous strategic mistakes,” the analyst noted, adding that the influence of Islamic groups from neighboring Afghanistan was also an important factor.

Analysts warn of the repetition of a civil war scenario in Tajikistan after fighting broke out. “Former field commanders have stepped up their activities lately,” Nezavisimaya Gazeta daily said.

The authorities accused some of them, including Mullo Abdullo and Ali Bedak, of the attack on the military convoy and the attempt to destabilize the situation, the paper said.

Last week, about 2,000 servicemen were sent to the Rasht district to eliminate Abdullo’s armed group and search for 25 prisoners who escaped on August 23, the paper said. Seven of them had been detained earlier, and the rest hid in Abdullo’s group and planned to cross the border with Afghanistan, it added.

In 1997, after a civil war in Tajikistan, Abdullo joined the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, with which he moved to Afghanistan in 2002. “It is not clear where he spent recent years,” Nezavisimaya Gazeta said.

“His return to Tajikistan in May last year immediately provoked increasing tension in the region,” the paper noted. “He started to attract field commanders of the former United Tajik Opposition group and opponents of the present regime of President Imomali Rakhmon.”

As Abdullo’s group was growing, law enforcement agencies conducted an operation in which former Emergency Situations Minister Mirzo Zieev was killed, the paper recalled. In the past, Zieev also was one of the United Tajikistan’s Opposition.

The fact that former militants have stepped up their efforts presents a real threat to Tajikistan’s security, analysts believe. But the possible government’s pressure may also provoke negative reaction as “social and religious tension is already increasing in the republic,” the paper said.

Meanwhile, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) has no plans to send peacekeepers to Tajikistan, First Deputy Head of its united headquarters Colonel-General Anatoly Nogovitsin said on Tuesday. The Defense Ministry of Tajikistan had said “they will cope with the task themselves,” Itar-Tass quoted him as saying.

However, the optimal variant for the authorities in Tajikistan would be to ask the CSTO to “send Russia’s and Kazakhstan’s representative of law-enforcement agencies,” believes political analyst Aleksey Vlasov.

Radical Islamic groups and local drug dealers may act together, Vlasov told Gazeta.ru online newspaper. “In any case, Tajikistan is experiencing serious problems now,” he said. “In fact, the scenario of the 1992 civil war is being repeated.”

“It is difficult, of course, to expect revolution now,” the analyst noted. “The level of social protest is weak enough, but a political crisis could not be ruled out.”

The latest events were triggered by the part of the Islamic opposition that is feeling threats “coming from new elements of Tajikistan’s politics,” believes Ajdar Kurtov, editor-in-chief of the Problems of National Strategy magazine.

“These new elements are related to a kind of attack against Islam,” he told Vesti FM radio. “And not only against the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan, but also Islamic symbols and rites, the policy recently pursued by the government.”

“However, there were reports in Tajik media last week that the leaders of law enforcement bodies would negotiate with representatives of implacable Islamic opposition to reach a kind of agreement,” he noted. “Probably, these talks failed, and the servicemen prepared for action came upon a fierce resistance.”

The latest events in the east of Tajikistan have shown that “in addition to Kyrgyzstan, another weak link exists in the post-Soviet Central Asia – the President Rakhmon regime,” Aleksey Malashenko of the Carnegie Moscow Center said.

Tajikistan is returning to the situation of the beginning of the ’90s, when the Islamic Renaissance Party was the core of united opposition in the country, the analyst wrote in Kommersant daily.

“At stake now is not only President Rakhmon’s authority,” Malashenko said. “The new armed conflict may question the very existence of the Tajik state, threatening it with breakup.”

Sergey Borisov,
Russian Opinion and Analysis Review, RT