Volga, Caucasus & Central Asia. Mar 6, 2008 19:37:53 GMT -5
Post by medo on Mar 6, 2008 19:37:53 GMT -5
As long as they don`t recognise Kosovo there is nothing to be gained by Russia by assaulting them. As long as they don`t recognise Kosovo independence they do not fully belive that the US has the right and more importantly the power and the influence to shape the world fully as it pleases with full disreagard of any norms whatsoever. It means they are not jet fully and completley US bitches and can be potentialy wrestled further away from the US.
Kosovo is not issue for US sponsored Georgia and Azerbaijan who claim that "Kosovo is a special case" and has nothing to do with their own breakaway provinces.
What does recognizing or not recognizing of Kosovo independece by Georgia or Azerbaijan has to do with their intentions to regain control over their breakaway provinces? Just because Georgia or Azerbaijan do not recognize Kosovo does not mean that Russia shall withdraw its troops from their breakaway provinces!
And anyways what is it for Russia if Armenia gains Nagorno-Karabakh? Respect to Armenian history and their nationalistic spirit... Likewise there is nothing in it for Russia in securing Abkhaz independence.
I didn't say that Russia supported the independence of these provinces! On the contrary, I wrote that current policy should continue, and that means Russian formal support for Georgian and Azerbajian's territorial integrity while keeping its forces in the breakaway provinces. In other words status quo. However ability to continue its present course does not dependent solely and entirely on Russia.
Russian support for Armenians has nothing to do with their "history and nationalistic spirits". I guess everybody is well aware that more than twice larger (by population) and much richer (by resources) Azerbaijan could have eaten all the Armenians in Armenia (+ those in Nagorno-Karabakh) if there had been no Russian support for Armenians. The same applies to Abkhanizains and Ossetians. But there was Russian support for the ethnic minorities in Georgia, Azerbaijan, Moldavia! Now, why do you think it was the case?
there is nothing in it for Russia in securing Abkhaz independence...But 250,000 new non-Russian citizens would hardly be a gain for Russia.
But they ARE Russian citizens! Both Abkhazians and South Ossetians!
The present policy of Russia is correct. It is a constant reminder for Baku and Tbilisi that if they stray too far into the US orbit Russia can put its full weight behind the seperatists and make their life miserable for them.
But ultimatley Russia doesn`t need constant strife in its near abroad. A lasting peace is more desirable.
Yes, as I already said Russia should continue its current policy in the Caucasus as long as possible. However, Russia does need an instrument of pressure to keep the countries in the region away form the western sphere of influence and thus keep the West away from the oil and gas deposits in Central Asia. These countries are on the path to these resources! After all this is exactly what the current policy means.
This is something that would have probably happened long ago under the sponsorship of Russia were it not for US exploiting the situation to anchor her influence in the region and promising Tbilisi and to a lesser extent Baku that by joining their block they won`t need to compromise at all, but will be able to get all of which they claim at Abhaz and Armenian expense.
I disagree. I think the West always wanted any type of solution of the frozen conflicts! And by using Kosovo issue they want to force Russia to cut the Gordian knot, while they would keep alliance with Georgia and Azerbaijan.