Serbia n Montenegro.

[Raven]

lonevolk said:

On January 18, the Serbian government is supposed to finalize the sale of the state-owned oil corporation, NIS, to the Russian giant Gazprom. Finance minister Mladjan Dinkic – who has lorded over the Serbian economy since October 2000 – opposed the deal, and favored Austrian and Hungarian proposals. Moscow then released FSB documents showing Dinkic and his tycoon friends had embezzled hundreds of millions of dollars from the Serbian treasury. Dinkic had claimed to be hunting for the missing millions that Milosevic's government had allegedly stolen and squirreled away in Cyprus; if the Russian charges are true, Dinkic actually used that money to set up a bank in Moscow, which bankrolled penny-buyout privatization bids by government-connected tycoons.

Dinkic is against the sale of the Oil industry claiming that Gazprom's offer is too low which is fine, except for the fact that he wasn't too concerned when he sold the Sartid Steelworks to "US Steel" (a better description would be he gave it to them for free) for a measly $25 Million (or thereabouts).....I hope that piece of shit ends up in jail where he belongs

I concur on that

It is fascinating to me how many idiots exist in Serbian politics

[kolowrat]

Dinkic is cheater. Not small but big cheater.

Every politician who work for decision not to sale NIS to russians have worked or born in Western Europe.
Dinkic has his place in MMF or WB and waits for it, working against russians interests on Balkan and East Europe and working for Western companies.

If serbia do not take this offer then it is doomed, really!!
Until now, since 90s, it is in very bad economic and social position but now will be "deleted"...

He wants privatisations of serbian big companies when they have smallest market value ever.

(Deal or not yes of course! )

[Raven]

Russia should just openly sent call to Serbs for union with Russia. If our politicians say no, then people should decide on streets. At least we would see are we people or sh**. If we are sh** we deserve to be doomed. If Russia isn`t capable for big game and if does not send call to us, then we are all sh**.

[medo]

psvranes said:

lonevolk said:

Dinkic is against the sale of the Oil industry claiming that Gazprom's offer is too low which is fine, except for the fact that he wasn't too concerned when he sold the Sartid Steelworks to "US Steel" (a better description would be he gave it to them for free) for a measly $25 Million (or thereabouts).....I hope that piece of shit ends up in jail where he belongs

I concur on that

It is fascinating to me how many idiots exist in Serbian politics

"Idiots" Who is an "idiot"? Dinkic?

He is not an idiot but a bandit! It's not a crime to be an idiot, but it is a crime to do what Dinkic did. He is a corrupt politician and a thief.

Although I do not live in Serbia I read a lot about Serbian politics and the very first impression I got about Dinkic is that he is a corrupt intruder in the Serbian government openly working for the western interests. (see Mobtel, Evroaksis bank and other cases...)

And the fact that such a scum gets more than 5% of votes in Serbia is one of the proofs that Serbia is a banana country too...

[CHORNYVOLK]

Sorry, Not Interested
There's a dark joke going around Serbia these days: "Russia finished the cold war with America—so Serbia is carrying on with it." Given the hostile stance of the two former superpowers over Kosovo, the assessment may be close to the mark. This week Washington heads to the United Nations Security Council's debate on Kosovo, with most of Europe alongside it, pressing for independence. But Serbia's Parliament has overwhelmingly rejected any future EU-imposed mission in Kosovo, and stands with the support of Russia and a growing list of countries including China, Indonesia and South Africa in its refusal to part with the region—even, according to Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica, if it means shelving EU membership talks.

Serbia, it seems, has flipped the tables on the EU. For the first time, a European country outside the EU is not clamoring to be let in, but, on the contrary, making demands of its own, insisting Europe continue negotiations over Kosovo until an agreeable solution to all parties is met. To the Serb on the street, it's a perfectly rational move. When they look toward the EU's newest members, Romania and Bulgaria, they see their neighbors, admitted in 2007, with crumbling infrastructure and a lower average monthly income than the Serbs themselves. In a recent poll, 75 percent of Serbs rejected giving up Kosovo in exchange for EU membership.

Now Serbia is demanding Europe line up "with us or against us" on Kosovo, and a number of EU states are leaning Serbia's way. Those opposed to a unilateral Kosovo declaration of independence include Spain, Cyprus, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia and Greece. They argue that to forcibly separate the 90 percent ethnic Albanian and largely Muslim province from an unwilling Serbia will undermine stability in the Balkans and set a dangerous precedent for other separatist movements.

For its part, the United States officially supports Kosovo's independence. But opposition has sprouted up. Former Navy admiral and Joint Chiefs of Staff adviser James Lyons warned this month against setting up a "Taliban-like state in the very heart of Europe" that "has known ties to the global jihad movement and organized crime." Its independence, he noted, will lead to a "train wreck" in relations with Russia. Last week former U.S. secretary of State Lawrence Eagleburger cautioned against carving Kosovo away from Serbia for the repercussions it would have on future global policy.

At the same time, Belgrade is tipping further from the West. It has recently talked with Russia's state-controlled energy giant Gazprom about selling it 51 percent of Serbia's state-owned oil company. Tomislav Nikolic, a leading candidate in the Jan. 20 presidential election, has been in discussions with Russia about establishing a Russian military base there.

What to do? Serbia could generate some sympathy from the West by handing over war criminals like Bosnian Serb military chief Radko Mladic to The Hague. In return, the West might improvise a diplomatic solution of the sort that already exists in Taiwan and northern Cyprus, says Andrew Denison of Transatlantic Networks, a think tank in Bonn, Germany. "We don't really allow their independence, but they can say they're independent," he says. But until then, the Americans and Europeans will have to play shrewd power brokers and apply the brakes to their stated promise of Kosovar independence—a promise many believe should never have been made.

Meantime, things could become even more volatile. In this weekend's presidential election, Serbs will choose between Boris Tadic and the ultranationalist Nikolic. Tadic has long said Serbia's future lies with the EU. Yet the idea of giving up Kosovo is a nonstarter, even at the risk of further delaying entry into the European club. Nikolic takes a harder line. Kosovo, he says, must remain with Serbia, and he believes the European project is more or less irrelevant to Serbia. Russia is the neighbor that matters. For now, Tadic appears to be the front runner. But an upset victory by Nikolic, and the arrival of a hard-line government, may send negotiations spinning further out of control. His Radical Party could forge an alliance with Kostunica's far-right Democratic Party of Serbia, throwing EU prospects even further into doubt. With so much at stake, the West must ask itself whether a free Kosovo is worth further humiliating a volatile, Russia-backed Belgrade in the heart of the Balkans. This is one small, poor Eastern state that the EU may eventually want more than it wants the EU.

www.newsweek.com/id/91617/page/1

[CHORNYVOLK]

Serbia's choice

*JOHN O'BRENNAN

On January 20, Serbs go to the polls for the first round of a presidential election that may decide the country's future for decades to come.



As Kosovo's new government moves toward a unilateral declaration of independence, Serbs face a stark choice: retain Kosovo and effectively sever ties with the European Union, or accept the painful reality of Kosovar independence and embrace a new future within the EU.

Serbia's liberal pro-European president, Boris Tadic, remains the favourite to win, but opinion polls suggest that his lead over Tomislav Nikolic of the ultra-nationalist Serbian Radical Party has narrowed to within the margin of error.

Nikolic, whose party's leader, Vojislav Seselj, is currently being tried for war crimes in The Hague, has campaigned on an anti-Western, Euro-skeptic, and openly chauvinist platform, exploiting the Kosovo issue at every turn and putting Tadic and other pro-Europeans on the defensive. His argument that Kosovo should remain an integral part of Serbia, and that Russia is a more natural (Slavic) ally for the Serbs than perfidious Europe, resonates strongly in a country traumatised by its recent past.

Tadic's real problem, however, lies not with his enemies but with his friends. His coalition partner, Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica, increasingly espouses hardline nationalist rhetoric that is indistinguishable from that of Nikolic and the Radicals. In addition to rehabilitating many Milosevic-era figures and refusing to arrest indicted war criminal General Ratko Maldic, Kostunica often speaks contemptuously about the EU and insists that if the EU recognises Kosovo's independence, Serbia will turn away from Europe and seek closer relations with Russia.

Under pressure from all sides, Tadic has thus had to maintain the fiction of defending a maximalist position on Kosovo ("no surrender") while striving to maintain and enhance Serbia's relationship with the EU, which he sees as crucial to reversing the terrible legacy of two decades of war and isolation. Unlike the peaceful secession of Montenegro in 2006, the loss of Kosovo represents a damaging blow to Serbia, given its place in the national consciousness. Kosovo serves as the source of the foundation myth of Serbian statehood and the repository of its cultural and historical lore. It is the spiritual essence of "celestial Serbia," the site of its most important Orthodox churches, and therefore far from being just a piece of territory. The EU, in this narrative, is merely the latest in a long line of predatory and unscrupulous foreign powers that have assaulted Serbian identity and pride.

From the perspective of the European Union (and many liberal Serbs), this narrative has the familiar ring of jingoism, obsessive self-regard, and an enduring attachment to victimhood. Serbia remains stuck in a nineteenth-century world of nationalism and refuses to recognise the new global realities of economic interdependence, inter-state reciprocity, and collectivism -- all of which characterise today's EU.

EU officials emphasise that an independent Kosovo will be subject to an unprecedented level of oversight. The EU will effectively "manage" Kosovo's independence through the deployment of a large police force and civilian administration. Moreover, Kosovo's ambition to join the EU in the next decade means that its treatment of the Serb minority will attract very close and intensive scrutiny.

Tadic and other outward-looking Serbs understand the nature of the EU accession process, and, in particular, how it acts as a mechanism of conflict resolution and encourages foreign direct investment, enhanced trade, accelerated economic growth, and more effective public administration. The EU's eastern enlargement provides conclusive evidence to support this view, and demonstrates how the EU's evolution has also encouraged a fundamental re-conceptualisation of sovereignty as something de-territorialised and diffuse rather than static and unchanging.

Thus, although Serbia's loss of sovereignty over Kosovo will undoubtedly be painful in the short term, the long-term gains for the entire Western Balkans region from eventual EU accession are vastly more significant. As a natural regional leader, Serbia can expect to reap the benefits as all states advance toward membership. The difficulty for Tadic lies in convincing Serbian voters that drawing closer to the EU is infinitely preferable to remaining attached to an outmoded concept of statehood that can only lead to isolation and backwardness.

John O' Brennan, a lecturer in European politics and society at the National University of Ireland, Maynooth, is the author of several books on EU enlargement.

[CHORNYVOLK]

Nikolic heads for Serbia poll win
Hardliner Tomislav Nikolic has won the first round of Serbian presidential elections, but will face a run-off poll, partial results suggest.
Mr Nikolic appeared to have won about 39% while his rival, current President Boris Tadic, had 35%, polling officials and independent monitors said.

Mr Nikolic's Serbian Radicals are the country's largest political party.

The election comes at a crucial time, with tensions rising over the future of Serbia's disputed province of Kosovo.

Polls opened at 0700 local time (0600 GMT) and closed at 2000, though some reportedly stayed open late to allow people still queuing to cast their ballots.

There was a high turnout, of more than 60%, which analysts say suggests that liberal Serbs have been drawn to the polls by a widespread fear that a Nikolic victory would stall reform and the path to EU membership.

Seven other candidates are contesting the election.

Kosovo debate

The BBC's Nick Thorpe in Belgrade, says there is a lot of excitement at Serbian Radical Party headquarters.






Plates of meat and glasses of brandy appeared in the corridors as news spread that Mr Nikolic was four or five points ahead, he says.
But while the party has a loyal and disciplined body of voters, analysts often question its ability to find enough reserves to win.

The campaign has been dominated by the issues of Kosovo, the economy and closers ties with the European Union.

Mr Nikolic favours eventual membership of the EU but says friendship with Serbia's fellow Orthodox Slavs in Russia is more important.


"Russia is a much closer partner to Serbia. Our path to Russia is open," he said.

"But if the EU wants to open up its doors and no longer impose obstacles, we will be glad to join the EU."

To become president, the winner must gain more than 50% of the votes.

If this is not achieved on Sunday, the top two candidates will hold a run-off election at the start of February.

Mr Tadic thinks the election will be close.

"This vote is the first half of the match," he said.

"The second half, on 3 February, will be a chance to once again decide to conquer Europe, a better life, better salaries and pensions, greater security."

Symbolism

The post of president is largely ceremonial, but it does carry enormous symbolic influence, says the BBC's Nick Hawton in Belgrade. The president is also the commander-in-chief of the armed forces.

HAVE YOUR SAY I don't have much faith in elections in that region Albert Klein, Almere, Netherlands

This could be critical in the coming weeks and months, when ethnic Albanians in the UN-administered province of Kosovo are expected to declare independence, our correspondent says.

Both Mr Tadic and Mr Nikolic are strongly opposed to this.

But Mr Nikolic has projected a more hardline stance on ties with the EU if the bloc recognises Kosovan independence.

His campaign has benefited from growing frustration at Western backing for Kosovo independence, as well as at the pace of Western-style reforms. A small number of international observers from the OSCE and Russia are monitoring the poll.

On 11 January, Serbia's election commission said it would bar US and British observers over their support for Kosovan independence.

Over 3,000 monitors from Serbia's nongovernmental Center For Free Elections and Democracy (CESID) watched the poll.

Story from BBC NEWS:
news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/europe/7198481.stm

[medo]

One might consider the question absurd, but it really isn't.

As regards Russia's possible stance on Serbia's presidential elections I have found very interesting article published by RIA Novosti web site. Here it is:

"Who will Moscow support in the Serbian elections?"
en.rian.ru/analysis/20080121/97454469.html

The article somehow confirms my doubts about seriousness of the Russian support to Serbia regarding Kosovo.

Yes, I know that opinions of commentators published in newspapers do not (necessarily) represent opinion of the country's government, even when such articles are published by pro-government media such as RIA Novosti which is pro-Kremlin.

But still this might by an indicator of what might be going in the background.

In short the article questions that victory of SRS candidate Tomislav Nikolić is in Russia's interest, and reminds the readers that Russian president Vladimir Putin has recently supported pro-western candidate Boris Tadić:

"...during the previous elections Moscow supported the incumbent president, Boris Tadic, though Nikolic won the first round. Vladimir Putin's greetings on the 50th birth anniversary of the Serbian president suggest that the Kremlin may support Tadic this time too. The Russian president wished him "new political successes,"

In addition the article also says:

"Nikolic has threatened to send Serbian troops to Kosovo if it proclaimed independence, though he added that a war must be avoided by all means. Russia does not need a new conflict in the Balkans."

and many other similar thoughts.

I am reading RIA Novosti for many years, and I have witnessed many such articles expressing this kind of opinions and published by pro-Kremlin RIA Novosti.


So what is Russia's real stance, real intentions behind its politics towards Kosovo, Serbia?

Are my suspicions which I expressed here, on this forum, few months ago true?
I want to remind Slavija's members of my thoughts I wrote in two threads few moths ago:

see thread "Closer Serbo-Russian ties?" www.slavija.proboards37.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1190086263&page=2

and my post there written on 24/9/2007 at 18:04 where I gave 5 arguments for claim that Russia actually does not support Serbia but is running politics which is to satisfy some of its hidden interests. All of these 5 arguments somehow converge to the conclusions published in the RIA Novosti article (and many others there).

I also want to remind the members of the thread "Has Russia sold Serbia for Iran?"
www.slavija.proboards37.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1197339798&page=1

and my post there written on 11/12/2007 at 3:23 where I gave new additional arguments for claim that Russia's support to Serbia is questionable and most importantly it has very firm limits.

In addition I have read many articles on Serbian web sites citing Russian ambassador in Serbia who several times said that he sees no chance for Russia to be involved in setting military bases in Serbia, and that Russia is not willing to support Serbia militarily.

I am not advocating military option in solving the Kosovo problem, as I have written several times in this forum, and I really mean that. However what bothers me is if one in advance and ultimately excludes military option and all that at the same time when the other side openly threats with violence! Not only that but even more -> not only Albanians but even western powers openly and publicly threat with "Albanian violence" if Albanians do not get what they want! These threats one has to consider real if we remember mart 2004 pogrom and ethnic cleansing of the Serbs from Kosovo all that allowed by NATO troops which have been there since 1999, and watched this peacefully.



So, regarding the subject of this thread, I think that time has finally come for us to see what is real politics Russia is driving towards Balkans and Serbia!

Is it true, what some people say, that all of what Russia has been doing so far regarding Serbia is giving verbal support (words and bla...bla...bla... do not cost anything, do they?) just for the sake of its economic interests?

So far the FACTS are:

1) Russia has persuaded Serbia not to issue a public tender for its largest national asset (oil and gas company NIS) thus there will be no other bidders and no possibility to raise the Serbian company's price by bidding.
Please note that some European companies have already expressed their wish to bid for the Serbian company, and they are so serious that they complained to their governments about Serbia's government refusal to issue public tender giving them opportunity to bid. Afterwards these western governments then have taken even harsher stance on Kosovo issue.

2) Even those Serbian politicians who back Russian proposals openly say that this offer is below the real price for the Serbian company but they count on secure gas delivery, which is supposedly uncertain if the company is to be sold to Austrian OMV which apparently offers much more for the Serbian oil company.


Therefore I ask, is it true that Russia supports pro-western Serbian presidential candidate, because it is afraid of some sort of obligations/commitments/responsibilities to Serbia if the pro-Russian candidate wins? Is this the reason why V. V. Putin supported pro-western Tadić? Indeed, in case of SRS candidate win verbal support and bla...bla...bla... certainly would not be enough.

Is it true that if Serbia would have to choose between its southern province of Kosovo on one side and membership in EU on the other side Russia would not support Serbia any longer since it needs Serbia as its own economic base in EU? (i.e. Russia needs companies in Serbia so it can enjoy indirect benefits of future Serbia's EU membership)

Are my suspicions expressed here
www.slavija.proboards37.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1190086263&page=2
correct?

If they are, then I think the ultimate conclusion has to be the same one as I offered in the thread I refer to!


I also want to remind our members of my post in thread "Serbia 'NO' to EU if Kosovo"
www.slavija.proboards37.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1198766283&page=1

written on 8/1/2008 at 15:17 where I opposed to our Serbian brothers regarding the so called "Russian betrayal of Serbia in 1999". I gave there many firm arguments that there was no "Russian betrayal of Serbia" and I really meant that, and I still do and shall do (as regards 1999).
However it is not 1999 now, neither Iraq and Serbia are to be the last victim countries. To the same extent to which I firmly reject the idea of the so called "Russian betrayal of Serbia in 1999", to the very same extent I would accept the idea of "Russian betrayal of Serbia in 2008" if and only if my suspicions explained above come true. Russian support for pro-western candidate as explained in the RIA Novosti article seem to be just one indication...



At the end I will repeat and a little bit extend my conclusion from few months ago -> I am convinced pan-Slavist, and my conviction and firm belief in the idea certainly does not and shall notdepend on any political moves of any particular country, Slavic or not Slavic, including that of Russia. Regardless of what Russia, Poland, Czechia... or any other Slavic country does regarding international laws and Serbia's territorial integrity I will remain firm believer in the pan-Slavic idea. If for example the Slavic countries decide to violate international laws in case of Serbia and recognize unilateral declaration of the independence of a province in a Slavic country, then I would actually even more and even firmer believe in the Pan-Slavic idea because in this case I would think that in case the idea lived in the real world such bad things would not happen.
However what does depend on the particular actions of particular countries is my doubt if this idea is even slightly possible in the current geostrategic circumstances and to what extent.
In case of negative scenario maybe future generations of the Slavs for a couple of centuries (if the world survives that long), would understand the idea better?

[Lonevolk]

Good post Medo and you raise some interesting questions the answers to which, "simple mortals" like ourselves can only guess.

I agree that Russia has it's own reasons for opposing Kosovo independence. And like you mentioned, it wants to force the West to recognise Kosovo by breaking existing rules for a variety of reasons.

I think officially Russia won't support any candidate in the second round elections because it wants to keep it's options open.

Apparently Kostunica and Velimir Ilic (part of the governing coalition but considered moderate nationalists) will publicly call on their supporters to vote for Tadic in the second round, after he agreed to back the Russian energy deal. And Tadic might also attend the signing of the deal in Moscow on the 25th of January and he will get to have a meeting with Putin.....no doubt that will be used as a sign of Putin's support during the election campaign.

But I have the feeling that the Radicals just might make it across the line no matter what Kostunica or Ilic support publicly .....their voters are much closer ideologically to the radicals after all.....

and it's possible that no amount of camera posing or "horror" stories of life under a Radical government in the government media will help in the end.

Either way, we'll know soon enough

[Lonevolk]

And this is how Kommersant sees it.....Russia will support Tadic

The Belgrade Battle
// Russian gas will be a crucial factor in the Serbian presidential election

www.kommersant.com/p844610/Serbia_Gazprom_NIS/


.................


and this is interesting also...

PACE Turns Kosovo Resolution Upside Down
// and votes for talks to go further

www.kommersant.com/p844517/r_1/PACE_Kosovo_EU/

[CHORNYVOLK]

Empire's Allies in Serbia Falter
by Nebojsa Malic
Famous anarchist Emma Goldman once said, "If voting changed anything, they would make it illegal." Following last weekend's presidential elections in Serbia, the party of the incumbent Boris Tadic must be wishing they had made voting illegal. It appears that "democratic moderate reformers" – epithets Western press routinely uses when describing Tadic and his followers – have badly overestimated their popularity. Looking at the mainstream media in Serbia – either lavishly sponsored or owned outright by Western corporations, governments and NGOs – it is not hard to see how they may have acquired this misguided perception.

It is unlikely that the outcome of the February 3 runoff vote could actually change Imperial policy towards Serbia; Washington and Brussels remain committed to carving out the Albanian-occupied and UN/NATO-administered Kosovo. Yet, lacking political, legal and even military means to impose its will, the Empire needs Serbia's acquiescence, even if it's tortured and threadbare. It has been openly speculated in the mainstream Western press that Tadic would provide such acquiescence. This is the real reason why Washington and the European capitals watch Serbia with bated breath; a victory by Nikolic would derail their already precarious project.

Shock and Irony

The real shock in the aftermath of Sunday's vote was not Nikolic's lead; a similar situation, in which the Radicals would poll well in the first round but lose the runoff, has happened before. There were, however, two surprises that upset both the campaign managers and the pollsters and analysts close to the establishment. First of all, the turnout in the election was substantially greater than expected. Recent parliamentary elections and the constitutional referendum barely rose above the necessary census; this time, over 60% of the voters took to the polls.

Secondly, and contrary to conventional wisdom, a high turnout did not hurt the Radicals. For years it was assumed that the Radicals had a stalwart but stagnant core of voters, while any larger turnout would include fickle voters more sympathetic to the Democrats. Last Sunday proved this assumption wrong.

A little bit of background is crucial for understanding the extent of panic in Tadic's camp. The vote was scheduled in mid-December by speaker of the parliament Oliver Dulic – member of Tadic's Democratic Party – without any consultations with the Democrats' coalition partners in the cabinet. In fact, the vote was a big bone of contention within the coalition, with the current Prime Minister, Vojislav Kostunica, opposed to elections in the midst of the ongoing crisis over the occupied province of Kosovo. Dulic's decision to ignore Kostunica's objections was deemed sufficiently insulting by the Prime Minister that his Populist Bloc ran their own candidate – Velimir Ilic – rather than support Tadic.

Ilic made a relatively modest showing with only 7% of the vote. However, that percentage puts Kostunica in position to rescue Tadic on February 3 – or bury him. Nikolic got 39.4% of the vote, leading Tadic (at 35.4%) by a whole four percent. Assuming the supporters of Milutin Mrkonjic (of the late Milosevic's Socialist Party, with 6% of the vote) throw their support behind Nikolic in the runoff, and the 5% favoring Cedomir Jovanovic, leader of the belligerent Liberal Democratic Party (which is neither liberal nor democratic), support Tadic, the incumbent president absolutely needs Ilic's seven percent to scratch out a win. Once again, he is at the mercy of the partner he so openly scorned.

'Pro-Westerner' and 'Ultranationalist'

Typical reporting about the election went along the lines of the AP, which reported Nikolic's lead on January 21 with trepidation. The agency called Nikolic an "ally of late autocrat Slobodan Milosevic" and even alleged (erroneously) that he "ruled alongside" Milosevic in the 1990s. Elsewhere, Nikolic has been called an "ultranationalist" and a "hardliner." The "pro-Western" Tadic, on the other hand, was presented as a progressive advocate of "Western-style reforms and integration into the European Union."

News and analysis in the West have largely echoed the claims of the Tadic campaign (or is it the other way around?) that a victory for the Democrats would mean "progress" and prosperity within the European Union, while the Radicals' triumph would cause a regression into the horrible darkness of the 1990s – the age of sanctions, bombing and wholesale demonization of Serbs and Serbia.

However, these are not the 1990s. Demonization of Serbs never really stopped. The seven-plus years of various "democrats" in charge (from the October 2000 coup onwards) has failed to change Empire's policy of pressure, extortion and humiliation in any appreciable way. With the U.S. economy tanking and Washington bogged down in Mesopotamia and the Hindu Kush, Imperial officials may make noises about dismembering Serbia, but it isn't clear how much they can actually do.

Tadic presents himself as the "European" choice, and threatens the Serbian voters with the loss of their European future, which is supposedly just around the corner. From vague promises about a better life, his message is now that of fear – fear that if Nikolic wins, the bright Eutopian future just around the corner will be lost. Now, the EU is scheduled to sign the Stabilization and Association Agreement – the ponderously named document marking the first step in Brussels' process of swallowing up a country – with Serbia on January 28. Yet with Kosovo a key bone of contention between Belgrade on one side, and Washington and Brussels on the other, it is apparent that a large portion of the electorate is wondering whether Tadic's Europhilia is at the expense of his own nation.

True Colors?

In May 2007, after months of acrimonious talks between Tadic and Kostunica's parties, they formed an uneasy coalition government. Kostunica remained Prime Minister, but Tadic's people took over the money, the military, and foreign affairs. This last post was filled by Tadic's protégé and former advisor, Vuk Jeremic.

Jeremic had previously been suspected of clandestine talks with certain Western governments to acquiesce in the separation of Kosovo; his appointment caused diplomat Leon Kojen to refuse a cabinet post overseeing Kosovo affairs. Yet his conduct as Belgrade's top diplomat has been downright exemplary, compared to his predecessors. Given that Vuk Draskovic was a raving lunatic and Goran Svilanovic sold out to the Empire openly, that's not saying much – but Jeremic stayed faithful to Belgrade's official position on Kosovo, even if he did not share it personally.

When election returns from the first round became public, however, Jeremic sounded panicked. During a visit to Greece, he downright pleaded for EU to support his party boss:

"The most critical decision that Serbia is going to be making in the next few weeks is strategically which path to take," Jeremic said. "Will it continue with European integration or will it choose another path? ... We very much hope that Serbia's people are going to make" the choice of European integration. (AP)

The following day, in Bucharest, Jeremic again appealed to Brussels, now saying that the signing of the SAA could help swing the vote in Tadic's favor. However, he also said this:

"Our conviction is that the EU, in accordance with the international law, or with a new U.N. resolution, will send a mission to Kosovo and this will clear off all issues linked to such an engagement's legal conformity." (Xinhua)

Unless he was mistranslated somehow (though he speaks fluent British-affected English), Jeremic just invited the EU to Kosovo! However, Prime Minister Kostunica indicated previously that an EU mission in Kosovo, intent on shepherding Albanian independence, was absolutely unacceptable to Belgrade. If the EU gets to decide what is legal, then anything the EU wants to do can be declared legal. It is extremely unlikely that Kostunica agreed to a EU mission; odds are that, in his eagerness to prop up his embattled patron, Jeremic has finally overstepped his bounds.

What Tomorrow Brings

It is apparent that electoral results have shocked and shaken Tadic and his allies, to the point where they've begun to stumble in the rhetorical minefield that is Serbian politics. While Nikolic calmly thanked his voters for supporting him through a "difficult campaign," Tadic gave an impassioned speech pleading for support, and pledging he would "not allow" Nikolic to become president.

Only, that really isn't up to him, but rather to the voters, right? What a pesky thing, democracy.

www.antiwar.com/malic/?articleid=12255

[Lonevolk]

A Russian parliamentarian is worried that overt Russian support for the incumbent pro-western Serbian president (Boris Tadic) could result in another dissapointment by pro-Russian political forces in Serbia and would lead to a serious backlash....



Izvestija article translated into Serbian (:

www.nspm.org.yu/koment_2007/2008_zatulin1.htm


And here's the original (full version) in Russian

www.izvestia.ru/world/article3112325/

[Deleted]

Maybe Russia does Serbia a favour by not supporting Nikolic and the Radicals respectively, who knows. (I not, you not, we not)

[medo]

lonevolk said:

A Russian parliamentarian is worried that overt Russian support for the incumbent pro-western Serbian president (Boris Tadic) could result in another dissapointment by pro-Russian political forces in Serbia

But the article itself says the OPPOSITE!?!


Lonevolk, I very much respect you and although I myself started a thread recently dealing with this speculation I must disagree with you!

This time I was very eager to read the FACTS. Since your thread has very interesting subject title I expected that I would find some FACTS. I read very much about Serbian politics in media and I already know many facts so I was very eager to find some new FACTS.

But unfortunately there are no FACTS that support your alerting subject title!

On the contrary! -> By reading this article, written by a Russian MP, member of the ruling United Russia party, one can see that the politician claims the opposite!

He actually said that:

1) Russia does not support any candidate

2) That Serbian media speculate about alleged support of pro-western candidate just because V. V. Putin congratulated B. Tadic on his birthday

3) He also said that Putin's party invited the radical leader to Russia but T. Nikolic still hasn't answered their invitation.


So all of the facts which pro-western media in Serbia write about bullshit "Russia turning back to radicals" are based on only one simple gentleman gesture from V. V. Putin who congratulated B. Tadic his birthday. I am intensively reading Russian media for many years and I know that V. V. Putin in most cases congratulates presidents or prime ministers of the countries important to Russia their birthdays. Last time I read in Russian media that during G8 meeting in Germany last summer V. Putin congratulated Mrs. A. Merkel her birthday too.


All these "Russia turning her back to Serbian radicals" crap stories are spread by pro-western media in Serbia or in some cases pro-western journalists. They are desperate since they smell the winds of radical changes.

Serbia shall soon again arise and again become what it has been during most of her history -> a decent, honorable and a proud country! Go Serbia!

[Lonevolk]

Russia won't openly support no one during the election, but it's certain gestures that will be interpreted in the media as indirect support.

With the signing of this oil-gas deal and possible other deals (sale of JAT to Aeroflot for example) Russia will have direct economic interests in Serbia. The perception is that if Nikolic becomes president, he will react much more forcefully to a recognition of Kosovo's independence. It's assumed that he would brake off diplomatic relations with the western countries, impose an economic blockade on Kosovo and so on.....that would not suit Russian economic interests, because they now view Serbia as a beachhead to the EU......not to mention the possibility of a military confrontation which could put Russia on a collision course with Nato.

That's what the media is commenting on.....rightly or wrongly

All these "Russia turning her back to Serbian radicals" crap stories are spread by pro-western media in Serbia or in some cases pro-western journalists. They are desperate since they smell the winds of radical changes.

Don't be too sure. I still think Nikolic is the underdog in this contest, because he's got the whole establishment against him......they are already histerically spreading stories about isolation, sanctions and war if Nikolic wins